Loading this topic
Topic · Geopolitics
1 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
2.3% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 1
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
2 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 81 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 82.5¢ | down 2 points this week | $7.05M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:57 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
Yes minus No · across the 1 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $312.8K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 435 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $305.6K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $214.5K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,012 bets |
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $206.3K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| TheQuietRisk0x0a85…fe9d | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $184.9K | Proven+$22.32 per $100 · 109 bets |
| xm390x696d…f89d | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $176.4K | Losing−$72.09 per $100 · 110 bets |
| 0xe639…082a | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $153.5K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 299 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $152.2K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,963 bets |
| SecondWindCapital0x8c80…02c3 | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $143.4K | New79 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $134.1K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.