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Topic · Geopolitics
1 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
2.3% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 1
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
2 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 81 days
Proven traders lean No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 · 2 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 1 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $312.8K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 435 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:43 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $305.6K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $214.5K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,012 bets |
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $206.3K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| TheQuietRisk0x0a85…fe9d | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $184.9K | Proven+$22.32 per $100 · 109 bets |
| xm390x696d…f89d | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $176.4K | Losing−$72.09 per $100 · 110 bets |
| 0xe639…082a | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $153.5K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 299 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $152.2K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,965 bets |
| SecondWindCapital0x8c80…02c3 | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $143.4K | New79 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $134.1K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| 0xad96…d498 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $127.6K | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 101 bets |
| 0xff1e…5e2d | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $124.2K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 639 bets |
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $106.9K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 533 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $101.4K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| freeman1230xb70c…34ca | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $97.1K | Proven+$4.42 per $100 · 732 bets |
| Dropper0x6bab…1292 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $95.0K | Proven+$4.27 per $100 · 2,262 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $94.5K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $82.5K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $82.5K | New55 bets |
| AllByMyseIf0x5188…c804 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $82.5K | Proven+$4.57 per $100 · 1,559 bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $82.5K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $82.0K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| onepingonly0x950e…f8e5 | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $70.0K | New11 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $66.0K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,266 bets |
| Kryptogram0xe961…ef1b | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $43.7K | New62 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.