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Topic · Geopolitics
3 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.5% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 3
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
3 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 20 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 | 14.5¢ | up 3 points this week | $1.55M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:08 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
Yes minus No · across the 3 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No on December 31 | $640.6K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No on December 31 | $268.3K | Losing−$3.36 per $100 · 266 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No on October 31 | $119.9K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No on December 31 | $40.9K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | December 31 | $40.4K | Proven+$7.88 per $100 · 526 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No on December 31 | $27.7K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No on December 31 | $24.9K | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| pollybond0x224d…e0e7 | No on December 31 | $20.8K | New16 bets |
| SAPolitcsSeer0xa30e…49d5 | No on October 31 | $20.7K | New84 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on October 31 | $19.3K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.