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Topic · Geopolitics
3 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.5% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 3
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
3 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 20 days
Proven traders lean No on December 31 · 3 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 3 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No on December 31 | $644.5K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:27 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No on December 31 | $268.3K | Losing−$3.36 per $100 · 266 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No on October 31 | $119.9K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No on December 31 | $40.9K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | December 31 | $40.4K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 528 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No on December 31 | $27.7K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No on December 31 | $24.9K | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| pollybond0x224d…e0e7 | No on December 31 | $20.8K | New16 bets |
| SAPolitcsSeer0xa30e…49d5 | No on October 31 | $20.7K | New84 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on October 31 | $19.3K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 789 bets |
| 0x0010…eb26 | No on October 31 | $17.9K | New50 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No on October 31 | $13.7K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No on October 31 | $12.6K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| shuanyang0x1681…b1c7 | December 31 | $12.5K | Proven+$2.81 per $100 · 178 bets |
| Specksalam0x80f1…3ccd | No on December 31 | $8.8K | New88 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No on December 31 | $8.2K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | December 31 | $8.1K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No on October 31 | $7.7K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| 0xce1d…1b9b | December 31 | $6.5K | Proven+$3.31 per $100 · 268 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | December 31 | $6.0K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| Jin-20260x4b30…4b79 | No on November 30 | $6.0K | New91 bets |
| sabsabinxz0xd3ec…6603 | No on December 31 | $5.8K | Proven+$23.86 per $100 · 101 bets |
| 0x2c79…e0aa | No on October 31 | $5.7K | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 218 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | No on December 31 | $5.4K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 159 bets |
| tryingmyluckhere0xac9b…d4c5 | December 31 | $5.2K | Positive+$14.75 per $100 · 560 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.