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Topic · Geopolitics
4 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.4% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 4
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
3 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 21 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by...? | June 30, 2027 | 22.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | $1.13M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:53 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
Yes minus No · across the 4 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No on December 31 | $308.5K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on December 31 | $59.3K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No on December 31 | $50.3K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No on December 31 | $28.3K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,956 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No on December 31 | $27.2K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No on October 31 | $26.4K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| Llalalala0x05e2…6e12 | No on December 31 | $24.7K | Proven+$11.42 per $100 · 125 bets |
| zthunderfury0xc682…17bb | No on December 31 | $23.4K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 497 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No on December 31 | $20.2K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| zhaoyk0xcc03…d5c0 | No on June 30, 2027 | $18.9K | New28 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.