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Topic · Geopolitics
4 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.4% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 4
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
3 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 20 days
Proven traders lean No on December 31 · 3 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 4 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No on December 31 | $308.6K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:11 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| No on December 31 |
| $59.4K |
| Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 777 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No on December 31 | $50.4K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No on December 31 | $28.3K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,964 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No on December 31 | $27.2K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No on October 31 | $26.4K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| Llalalala0x05e2…6e12 | No on December 31 | $24.7K | Proven+$11.42 per $100 · 125 bets |
| zthunderfury0xc682…17bb | No on December 31 | $23.4K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 497 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No on December 31 | $20.2K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| zhaoyk0xcc03…d5c0 | No on June 30, 2027 | $19.1K | New28 bets |
| mm4ker0x8c57…f939 | No on December 31 | $18.4K | Proven+$4.56 per $100 · 367 bets |
| 3.3.30x593d…7d5d | December 31 | $18.1K | New69 bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No on December 31 | $17.7K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| 0x8c66…44f3 | No on December 31 | $15.9K | Proven+$3.23 per $100 · 143 bets |
| Amrosein0x706c…a94b | December 31 | $15.7K | New31 bets |
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No on December 31 | $15.6K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| agggr0xac92…9d64 | No on December 31 | $14.6K | Proven+$4.25 per $100 · 139 bets |
| nedsta0xf92a…a517 | No on December 31 | $13.3K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 466 bets |
| TylerTurden0x69ea…15cd | No on October 31 | $11.2K | Proven+$4.25 per $100 · 939 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No on October 31 | $10.0K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9 | No on December 31 | $10.0K | Proven+$4.89 per $100 · 2,385 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No on November 30 | $8.6K | New76 bets |
| skibabiba0x79d9…baec | No on December 31 | $8.3K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 116 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | No on December 31 | $8.2K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | No on December 31 | $8.0K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.