Market · 1 of 13 outcomes
Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 11:08 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 393 | 91.4¢ | $309 | Positive+$2.09 per $100 · 3,320 bets |
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 100 | 93.0¢ | $79 | New19 settled bets |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | Yes | 298 | 25.3¢ | $64 | — |
| Dr.mett0xe0dc…3944 | No | 80 | 83.6¢ | $63 | — |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 79 | 94.0¢ | $62 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 210 | 9.2¢ | $45 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,781 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 37 | 92.3¢ | $29 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 5,701 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 106 | 7.6¢ | $23 | Proven+$5.91 per $100 · 7,365 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 14 | 92.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,245 bets |
| walkwithyourboy0xbc1f…8f78 | No | 14 | 73.8¢ | $11 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 42 | 7.5¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 22 | 28.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,790 bets |
| 0x1828…5bcc | No | 6 | 74.5¢ | $5 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 20 | 8.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| alphalab10x9295…b91c | Yes | 20 | 11.0¢ | $4 | — |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | No | 3 | 90.4¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 3,308 bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 2 | 88.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 2 | 82.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 7 | 30.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 5 | 24.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 93.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| xSundancer0xfdc3…f14e | No | 0 | 77.9¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 108 events · $6.11M in play