Market · 13 of 14 outcomes
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 00:26 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xeny0x7b75…3fd1 | No | 501 | 94.2¢ | $489 | Proven+$3.11 per $100 · 2,681 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 439 | 92.3¢ | $428 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,246 bets |
| 0x1411…2410 | No | 100 | 92.3¢ | $98 | Proven+$3.28 per $100 · 354 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 100 | 87.3¢ | $98 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| Midas140x6183…3834 | No | 31 | 91.0¢ | $30 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 670 bets |
| 0x0456…c88a | No | 20 | 91.6¢ | $20 | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | No | 20 | 76.7¢ | $20 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| olekslie0x4b5c…4568 | No | 20 | 88.0¢ | $20 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 14 | 68.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0xeae7…8e9e | No | 11 | 90.4¢ | $11 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 287 | 19.4¢ | $7 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| 0xbcba…223f | No | 6 | 90.4¢ | $6 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | No | 4 | 90.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,048 bets |
| mrmuller0x975d…01be | Yes | 151 | 6.3¢ | $4 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 133 | 11.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,511+ bets · updating |
| protonboy0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | 116 | 7.8¢ | $3 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 100 | 10.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 80 | 6.5¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 77 | 8.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 63 | 19.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 4,796 bets |
| grungeee0xa6b3…c1ea | No | 1 | 92.3¢ | $1 | — |
| eatLi0xf7ec…e53a | No | 1 | 90.4¢ | $1 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 40 | 8.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 40 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| pinner0xd886…1746 | Yes | 40 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 27 | 20.6¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 23 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 6.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 20 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | 0 | 93.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dropmeplease0x758b…0a1c | Yes | 17 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 13 | 5.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| cacato0xd6df…d71d | Yes | 12 | 28.0¢ | $0 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 7 | 28.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 53asdad0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | 3 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ghoan0x897a…4194 | No | 0 | 71.8¢ | $0 | — |
| nufonehudis670x6b44…be1e | No | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 90.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,209 bets |
| Elton1230x8673…4025 | No | 0 | 92.3¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
#1 AI Model Company · End of December 2026 · 2 events · $39.2K in play