Market · 4 of 14 outcomes
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 05:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bmtr0x7d1b…e75c | No | 659 | 89.4¢ | $613 | — |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 430 | 84.4¢ | $400 | Proven+$10.79 per $100 · 1,662 bets |
| Lapinot0xa834…71ae | No | 369 | 81.8¢ | $343 | — |
| code.up0x2e2f…6884 | No | 210 | 88.4¢ | $196 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 230 bets |
| alternate010x5c4c…8131 | No | 150 | 87.0¢ | $139 | Losing−$4.45 per $100 · 126 bets |
| Cryonic0xf0f6…3836 | No | 114 | 88.4¢ | $106 | — |
| SammeK0xcd5c…626b | Yes | 1,145 | 28.2¢ | $80 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | No | 74 | 79.3¢ | $69 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,048 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | No | 52 | 86.0¢ | $49 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 46 | 85.4¢ | $43 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| Ogre-Magi0x99f0…649f | No | 43 | 84.5¢ | $40 | — |
| NOPH0x2412…f534 | No | 33 | 72.0¢ | $30 | New49 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 23 | 87.0¢ | $22 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,993 bets |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 178 | 13.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| 0xf685…1ddc | No | 11 | 84.5¢ | $11 | — |
| xcaiox0x7478…4003 | No | 11 | 89.4¢ | $10 | Proven+$7.09 per $100 · 278 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 133 | 13.1¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,642 bets |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 96 | 15.5¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| mrmuller0x975d…01be | Yes | 90 | 9.9¢ | $6 | — |
| dropmeplease0x758b…0a1c | Yes | 87 | 13.2¢ | $6 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 84 | 7.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xf0d1…1958 | No | 6 | 88.4¢ | $6 | — |
| protonboy0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | 83 | 12.2¢ | $6 | — |
| cd30gfu530p00xfd5a…aa7a | No | 6 | 85.4¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,176 bets |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 68 | 10.5¢ | $5 | — |
| mdgc0xdc3f…f038 | No | 5 | 51.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 56 | 9.5¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 4,796 bets |
| oxb2a309A61ca9eD5DB26e9FDDa3a19fF4aE3a79e00xb2a3…79e0 | No | 4 | 88.4¢ | $3 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 30 | 29.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 25 | 10.5¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | Yes | 20 | 8.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 29,966+ bets · updating |
| buur0x94e4…6be5 | Yes | 20 | 29.0¢ | $1 | — |
| plusdome0xb6c7…c0e2 | Yes | 18 | 12.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.62 per $100 · 2,138 bets |
| grungeee0xa6b3…c1ea | No | 1 | 88.4¢ | $1 | — |
| bun-gopinky0x972f…ab22 | No | 1 | 89.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2cd0…f897 | Yes | 14 | 14.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xddd7…a820 | Yes | 13 | 75.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 11 | 9.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$33.48 per $100 · 563 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 10 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| gawkgawk0x78d4…c133 | Yes | 10 | 14.5¢ | $1 | — |
| piggyramen0xa3b4…88df | Yes | 10 | 13.5¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 9 | 16.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| 0x1a9e…3d93 | Yes | 8 | 13.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x39d3…7c7c | Yes | 8 | 12.4¢ | $1 | — |
| twok0201010xfcdd…a29a | Yes | 8 | 13.5¢ | $1 | — |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | Yes | 8 | 42.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 8,855 bets |
| 2475250x7138…8c89 | Yes | 3 | 15.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 19,510 bets |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 3 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 1 | 13.5¢ | $0 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| 53asdad0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | 0 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 21.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
#1 AI Model Company · End of December 2026 · 2 events · $39.2K in play