Market · 3 of 43 outcomes
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:57 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 15 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
11 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| baddestofthemall0x8217…9299 | Yes | 453,146 | 4.2¢ | $13.8K | New0 settled bets |
| Pog0xe6ca…b27a | No | 9,958 | 94.1¢ | $9.65K | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 309,000 | 0.4¢ | $9.42K | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 9,479 | 95.7¢ | $9.19K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,419 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 195,829 | 5.8¢ | $5.97K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| laganza0xd63c…d2f6 | Yes | 190,000 | 1.6¢ | $5.8K | — |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | Yes | 122,293 | 2.0¢ | $3.73K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| longcastles0xbd98…e83a | Yes | 112,727 | 0.0¢ | $3.44K | — |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 85,279 | 2.6¢ | $2.6K | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | Yes | 84,337 | 3.2¢ | $2.57K | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 967 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 2,626 | 97.6¢ | $2.55K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| xiamms0x1dfd…6247 | No | 2,604 | 96.0¢ | $2.52K | New8 settled bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | No | 2,494 | 95.0¢ | $2.42K | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| tofutoddler10xf475…e2f9 | Yes | 76,088 | 3.0¢ | $2.32K | — |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 74,671 | 0.3¢ | $2.28K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,661 bets |
| Cassiopeian0x4b79…47e6 | Yes | 72,714 | 1.9¢ | $2.22K | Losing−$10.93 per $100 · 191 bets |
| try655rdghgjgh0x9cea…e0ac | No | 2,121 | 97.0¢ | $2.06K | — |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | Yes | 53,010 | 3.1¢ | $1.62K | New6 settled bets |
| flxbt0x0aaa…42ce | Yes | 43,710 | 4.8¢ | $1.33K | New3 settled bets |
| Investoooooooor0xe2d1…7072 | Yes | 39,980 | 1.7¢ | $1.22K | — |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | Yes | 39,978 | 0.0¢ | $1.22K | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 2,138 bets |
| FrMurphy0x7fa6…5a98 | Yes | 35,342 | 2.8¢ | $1.08K | New0 settled bets |
| 0xcb58…0160 | Yes | 35,000 | 2.0¢ | $1.07K | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 113 bets |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 34,769 | 0.5¢ | $1.06K | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,353 bets |
| KingMaker21470x0e15…9468 | Yes | 28,882 | 8.3¢ | $881 | New12 settled bets |
| 0x31b6…2d92 | Yes | 25,228 | 2.2¢ | $769 | Positive+$11.23 per $100 · 344 bets |
| taerv5340x30f9…fbfc | Yes | 23,357 | 0.7¢ | $712 | Proven+$32.96 per $100 · 2,276 bets |
| samsmithto0x1576…5078 | Yes | 19,703 | 5.1¢ | $601 | New63 settled bets |
| Polybius0x59a7…9f30 | Yes | 18,157 | 2.7¢ | $554 | Break-even−$0.45 per $100 · 184 bets |
| 0x0716…55e9 | Yes | 16,988 | 5.9¢ | $518 | New44 settled bets |
| FreeCityIndividual0x098e…6fa2 | No | 521 | 92.0¢ | $505 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 5,150 bets |
| MasonsConqueredRome0x357e…2a0c | Yes | 16,065 | 3.3¢ | $490 | Losing−$1.92 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| NiezlyHarpagan0x821f…3084 | Yes | 14,626 | 7.1¢ | $446 | New30 settled bets |
| hose0xcc29…7774 | Yes | 13,501 | 6.4¢ | $412 | Proven+$3.21 per $100 · 274 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 13,479 | 0.6¢ | $411 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,307 bets |
| Carpool0x4e61…82ee | Yes | 12,026 | 4.9¢ | $367 | Proven+$2.60 per $100 · 131 bets |
| mia84180xcf9e…e286 | Yes | 11,263 | 2.3¢ | $344 | — |
| WhaleHunter990xe161…7854 | Yes | 10,977 | 2.8¢ | $335 | — |
| TR80x8210…5a2c | Yes | 10,436 | 1.7¢ | $318 | New6 settled bets |
| DualDelta0x1543…baaf | Yes | 10,000 | 1.4¢ | $305 | Proven+$9.93 per $100 · 326 bets |
| limingnftt0x66c6…53e2 | Yes | 10,000 | 5.1¢ | $305 | New49 settled bets |
| randomlypunting0xaec3…22df | Yes | 10,000 | 3.5¢ | $305 | Losing−$5.00 per $100 · 1,379 bets |
| 0x76fe…fa66 | Yes | 9,332 | 4.3¢ | $285 | New16 settled bets |
| DREMMERS0xceba…3e18 | No | 280 | 93.2¢ | $271 | — |
| Integer40x6441…139e | No | 279 | 97.4¢ | $271 | Proven+$5.80 per $100 · 133 bets |
| geode0xc733…dde7 | Yes | 8,809 | 2.3¢ | $269 | — |
| Fcarlsson60xad67…992a | Yes | 7,643 | 6.8¢ | $233 | — |
| 0xb514…4359 | Yes | 7,328 | 4.1¢ | $224 | — |
| AntiLarebil0x22b8…222e | Yes | 7,011 | 2.2¢ | $214 | New13 settled bets |
| DegenBluey0xee57…4cb0 | Yes | 7,000 | 3.1¢ | $214 | — |
| gotchahomes0x4b13…d8af | Yes | 6,800 | 2.2¢ | $207 | New18 settled bets |
| 0xfaa7…605b | No | 210 | 96.4¢ | $204 | — |
| JHhggb660x2c22…9a1f | No | 206 | 97.3¢ | $199 | New27 settled bets |
| Minici004hi0x5ad9…0664 | No | 205 | 97.8¢ | $198 | New47 settled bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 6,000 | 2.7¢ | $183 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| Rebecca7660x3cc4…e66c | No | 184 | 50.0¢ | $178 | New31 settled bets |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | Yes | 5,711 | 5.8¢ | $174 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| reid990x07ee…8dfe | Yes | 5,600 | 3.4¢ | $171 | Proven+$5.54 per $100 · 335 bets |
| 0xb441…7796 | Yes | 5,551 | 1.8¢ | $169 | — |
| Jason30300x0ab4…f677 | No | 174 | 97.6¢ | $169 | New55 settled bets |
| 0x0a3c…0511 | Yes | 5,300 | 2.7¢ | $162 | New56 settled bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 5,118 | 0.7¢ | $156 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | 5,019 | 2.8¢ | $153 | Proven+$94.70 per $100 · 198 bets |
| poie0xdfde…fb7a | No | 143 | 98.1¢ | $138 | — |
| 0x3f7c…4385 | No | 132 | 95.1¢ | $128 | New25 settled bets |
| 0xnft8880x4316…adee | No | 126 | 96.8¢ | $122 | New26 settled bets |
| 0xcf2a…4056 | No | 121 | 95.2¢ | $117 | — |
| LiLerNoCh0x5b7d…b922 | No | 120 | 96.7¢ | $116 | New43 settled bets |
| 0xe323…ea18 | No | 115 | 95.2¢ | $111 | — |
| 0x60c5…dbb3 | No | 110 | 94.8¢ | $107 | New16 settled bets |
| sylvia5200x2162…4568 | No | 108 | 93.5¢ | $105 | New16 settled bets |
| Jonasssss0x0e4e…5bf4 | No | 104 | 96.6¢ | $100 | Break-even−$0.23 per $100 · 225 bets |
| polwally40xf28f…0327 | No | 103 | 97.0¢ | $100 | — |
| TheKinginYellow0x4ac9…cf1a | No | 102 | 93.5¢ | $99 | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 1,446 bets |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | No | 100 | 97.2¢ | $97 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 6,265 bets |
| Bananaoo0x848b…ab76 | No | 100 | 96.1¢ | $97 | New45 settled bets |
| 0x9ebf…1030 | No | 100 | 95.1¢ | $97 | — |
| 0xeb80…d1d6 | No | 98 | 95.1¢ | $95 | — |
| mak9230xf7b2…9cb3 | No | 83 | 96.7¢ | $80 | — |
| 0xada4…7aa4 | No | 80 | 95.2¢ | $78 | — |
| fgfjyt84ewwewtyy0xd101…305e | No | 72 | 97.5¢ | $70 | — |
| krystal140xf828…e8e3 | No | 71 | 97.0¢ | $69 | — |
| 0xeec4…b7cd | No | 69 | 97.0¢ | $67 | — |
| gomeztara0x243e…96b7 | No | 68 | 97.0¢ | $66 | — |
15 accounts bet both sides equally · 14.7K shares each side · Show
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US 2028 presidential race · 14 events · $63.7M in play
Exactly one of this event's 43 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.