Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:39 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iutwpfal0xb89f…1c44 | No | 1,065 | 79.2¢ | $889 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 1,531 bets |
| Redeemm0x35a0…2bab | No | 223 | 80.0¢ | $186 | — |
| NoTeacher0xcb48…be6d | No | 161 | 83.8¢ | $134 | — |
| KiruaTrading0xa7d2…f954 | Yes | 609 | 7.7¢ | $100 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 97 | 86.0¢ | $81 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,027 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 84 | 91.0¢ | $70 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| dgfd760x191e…ef6b | No | 83 | 75.8¢ | $69 | — |
| AboveLookUp0xe720…137c | No | 80 | 81.6¢ | $67 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 62 | 92.0¢ | $52 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | No | 40 | 76.1¢ | $33 | — |
| SET-2290xd5d7…5e39 | Yes | 170 | 13.5¢ | $28 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 157 | 20.4¢ | $26 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| hfv0xe102…71df | Yes | 149 | 22.0¢ | $25 | — |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 21 | 77.0¢ | $17 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | Yes | 100 | 25.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 84 | 22.3¢ | $14 | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 80 | 19.4¢ | $13 | Losing−$2.58 per $100 · 123,998 bets |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 68 | 22.0¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 60 | 21.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| leadernew0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | 60 | 22.0¢ | $10 | — |
| johnthek0xd925…f36f | No | 10 | 74.8¢ | $9 | — |
| JakeBeez0x25b9…3058 | Yes | 50 | 16.0¢ | $8 | — |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | Yes | 48 | 19.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 48 | 20.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$4.13 per $100 · 12,822 bets |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | Yes | 40 | 22.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | Yes | 34 | 21.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 29.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 24 | 21.6¢ | $4 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 22 | 20.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 21 | 22.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 20 | 17.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| smarterstrat0xe550…6f6e | Yes | 20 | 20.0¢ | $3 | — |
| tinyyyyy10x8467…d3ed | Yes | 14 | 22.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 13 | 21.5¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Welcome20260x1073…d8ba | No | 1 | 72.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xdfa1…35a2 | Yes | 6 | 17.7¢ | $1 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 1 | 84.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 2 | 15.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| mangostein0x544f…4cb9 | No | 0 | 84.5¢ | $0 | — |
| hih9990xd2fe…25d6 | No | 0 | 72.5¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 0 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| VonVonagh0xeace…38b9 | Yes | 0 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.06M in play