Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 07:17 UTC. Not financial advice.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 106 events · $6.1M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 1,559 | 67.1¢ | $1.18K | — |
| KiruaTrading0xa7d2…f954 | Yes | 446 | 34.6¢ | $336 | — |
| Valiko.0x44da…e225 | Yes | 292 | 61.0¢ | $220 | Proven+$3.19 per $100 · 161 bets |
| doubetter0x1000…b7b4 | Yes | 270 | 37.9¢ | $204 | — |
| WunnaWun0xe562…4fa9 | No | 500 | 47.6¢ | $123 | — |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | No | 449 | 49.9¢ | $110 | Proven+$8.70 per $100 · 4,101 bets |
| mintable0xe977…74ca | Yes | 136 | 56.1¢ | $103 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 339 | 33.6¢ | $83 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,686+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 221 | 39.7¢ | $54 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 186 | 61.0¢ | $46 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,106 bets |
| dgfd760x191e…ef6b | No | 124 | 58.0¢ | $30 | — |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | No | 100 | 35.8¢ | $25 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 32 | 71.7¢ | $24 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | No | 80 | 26.8¢ | $20 | — |
| Forch0x6ca0…e59d | Yes | 21 | 45.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 20 | 36.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 8,815 bets |
| 0x8df9…468c | No | 57 | 35.9¢ | $14 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 17 | 58.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$7.62 per $100 · 411,170 bets |
| youyizhiguangg0xdc53…cb5e | No | 50 | 25.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 50 | 57.0¢ | $12 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 50 | 18.0¢ | $12 | — |
| braindance0x7ff3…e007 | No | 40 | 27.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | No | 40 | 73.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Slowbucks0x312a…66b8 | No | 35 | 40.1¢ | $9 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | No | 30 | 58.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 30 | 29.3¢ | $7 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| johnthek0xd925…f36f | No | 29 | 34.8¢ | $7 | — |
| SulkingCrypto0xe123…2fc1 | No | 28 | 39.0¢ | $7 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 27 | 51.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Redeemm0x35a0…2bab | No | 27 | 31.9¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xf528…7e5b | Yes | 8 | 73.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 420210x0d42…f124 | No | 23 | 26.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 9,218 bets |
| xSundancer0xfdc3…f14e | No | 21 | 26.8¢ | $5 | — |
| NoTeacher0xcb48…be6d | No | 20 | 14.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 20 | 73.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$3.48 per $100 · 14,006 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 20 | 38.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | No | 20 | 61.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xd2d3…7bb3 | No | 20 | 40.0¢ | $5 | — |
| ninjagamerpinny0x308f…8607 | No | 18 | 26.8¢ | $4 | — |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | Yes | 5 | 35.9¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 3,308 bets |
| 0x11b7…4b0f | No | 15 | 55.3¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 4,466 bets |
| t0814820x6675…4d93 | No | 14 | 28.0¢ | $4 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 14 | 22.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 14,475 bets |
| paulqb000xc4e2…9d8e | No | 12 | 26.0¢ | $3 | — |
| QuessTea0070x660c…7f7a | No | 11 | 28.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.70 per $100 · 5,116 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 15.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 9,194 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 71.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.25 per $100 · 4,068 bets |
| chatwww0x7c1b…38fc | No | 10 | 64.9¢ | $2 | New41 settled bets |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 10 | 72.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 10 | 71.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x45e6…8fca | No | 8 | 61.0¢ | $2 | — |
| iminmymomscarbroombroom0x2eae…8d29 | No | 8 | 62.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$25.58 per $100 · 350 bets |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | No | 5 | 30.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3d05…acde | No | 3 | 23.0¢ | $1 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 2 | 15.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| superaiapi0xd04e…122e | No | 2 | 62.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x489a…fff2 | No | 2 | 25.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Welcome20260x1073…d8ba | No | 2 | 62.9¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 14,477 bets |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 1 | 40.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd5cd…e2be | No | 1 | 41.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | No | 0 | 65.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.73 per $100 · 16,779 bets |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 0 | 73.0¢ | $0 | — |
| iutwpfal0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | 0 | 37.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 1,531 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.