Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 2,710 | 81.0¢ | $2.26K | — |
| SusanWarrenHR0x22db…190f | Yes | 400 | 74.0¢ | $334 | Proven+$4.72 per $100 · 8,310 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 1,204 | 19.3¢ | $199 | Losing−$2.56 per $100 · 124,139 bets |
| Mr.Frog🐸0xb1fe…423a | No | 984 | 16.2¢ | $162 | — |
| mintable0xe977…74ca | Yes | 188 | 78.2¢ | $157 | — |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | No | 836 | 15.4¢ | $138 | — |
| AboveLookUp0xe720…137c | Yes | 82 | 73.4¢ | $69 | — |
| VolynMolfar0x6c2a…b7b5 | Yes | 63 | 77.3¢ | $53 | Positive+$1.70 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| OrionStars0x2733…a3c4 | Yes | 41 | 74.8¢ | $34 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 32 | 82.2¢ | $27 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 110 | 22.4¢ | $18 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| richyee0xcdf5…e344 | Yes | 21 | 91.0¢ | $17 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | No | 100 | 26.0¢ | $17 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 16 | 86.0¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | No | 80 | 18.5¢ | $13 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 51 | 10.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| trader-0eec4a7f0x0eec…e587 | Yes | 8 | 90.4¢ | $7 | — |
| 420210x0d42…f124 | No | 36 | 25.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 9,218 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 31 | 18.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 27 | 13.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,295 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 5 | 84.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| ox7eD3aed17a79c2A3375Da27a9470b310585027AA0x7ed3…27aa | Yes | 4 | 76.2¢ | $3 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 20 | 16.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 20 | 25.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Slowbucks0x312a…66b8 | No | 20 | 16.0¢ | $3 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 25.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 10 | 24.0¢ | $2 | — |
| yoyo4242690xa314…5ba7 | No | 10 | 34.0¢ | $2 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 10 | 25.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x45e6…c078 | No | 9 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | 1 | 76.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | No | 5 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$15.49 per $100 · 4,509 bets |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | 1 | 84.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 1 | 87.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| mangostein0x544f…4cb9 | Yes | 0 | 81.4¢ | $0 | — |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | No | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play