Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 2,750 | 86.8¢ | $2.58K | — |
| SusanWarrenHR0x22db…190f | Yes | 372 | 82.7¢ | $348 | Proven+$4.72 per $100 · 8,310 bets |
| AboveLookUp0xe720…137c | Yes | 124 | 86.5¢ | $116 | — |
| OrionStars0x2733…a3c4 | Yes | 114 | 88.4¢ | $106 | — |
| techhawk0xc555…371f | Yes | 114 | 88.4¢ | $106 | — |
| romanova0x2af6…b030 | Yes | 80 | 83.1¢ | $75 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 50 | 86.0¢ | $47 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| VolynMolfar0x6c2a…b7b5 | Yes | 50 | 83.8¢ | $46 | Positive+$1.70 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | No | 671 | 10.6¢ | $43 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 667 | 3.3¢ | $42 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 37 | 87.0¢ | $35 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Mr.Frog🐸0xb1fe…423a | No | 532 | 17.4¢ | $34 | — |
| 0x6ac3…3c8b | Yes | 21 | 93.8¢ | $20 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 282 | 10.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| trader-0eec4a7f0x0eec…e587 | Yes | 17 | 81.5¢ | $16 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 180 | 15.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,303 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 178 | 16.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0xeae7…8e9e | Yes | 12 | 85.5¢ | $11 | — |
| pppooooolllmmmk0x4535…4007 | No | 160 | 23.2¢ | $10 | — |
| 420210x0d42…f124 | No | 157 | 12.5¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 9,218 bets |
| iutwpfal0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | 9 | 83.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 1,531 bets |
| UpTheStairs0x8bac…5b0e | Yes | 7 | 77.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Xeny0x7b75…3fd1 | No | 104 | 0.4¢ | $7 | Proven+$3.11 per $100 · 2,681 bets |
| 0x652b…f5c2 | No | 104 | 8.3¢ | $7 | Proven+$9.60 per $100 · 493 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 102 | 6.6¢ | $6 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| asd560xda65…e87e | No | 102 | 22.9¢ | $6 | — |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | No | 100 | 5.1¢ | $6 | — |
| radeksaturka0xa98c…5173 | No | 100 | 20.6¢ | $6 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 93 | 11.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| dgfd760x191e…ef6b | No | 92 | 17.1¢ | $6 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 5 | 91.3¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| ox7eD3aed17a79c2A3375Da27a9470b310585027AA0x7ed3…27aa | Yes | 3 | 81.7¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x45e6…8fca | No | 31 | 16.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | No | 30 | 6.3¢ | $2 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 20 | 16.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| yo20000x6417…8279 | Yes | 1 | 83.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x11b7…4b0f | No | 17 | 17.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,344 bets |
| AlvisLi-FutureTopInvestor0x0cf8…180d | Yes | 1 | 98.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 684 bets |
| 0xdfa1…35a2 | No | 11 | 9.4¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 10 | 5.6¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 10 | 18.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9de6…e7f0 | Yes | 1 | 89.0¢ | $1 | — |
| johnthek0xd925…f36f | No | 7 | 16.5¢ | $0 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 6 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | No | 1 | 14.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.77 per $100 · 77,753+ bets · updating |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| obscure10x8268…e7fd | No | 1 | 18.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.89 per $100 · 1,890 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| LovelyPanda0x2ccf…5f6a | Yes | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | — |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | Yes | 0 | 88.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play