Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olcan0x355e…a038 | No | 1,120 | 87.5¢ | $969 | Proven+$6.27 per $100 · 4,948 bets |
| zk19840x0049…6034 | No | 116 | 91.0¢ | $100 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 604 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 86 | 88.2¢ | $74 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 455 | 11.4¢ | $61 | — |
| Yeahsingularityyah0xee82…fd8c | Yes | 284 | 7.3¢ | $38 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | No | 40 | 90.0¢ | $35 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 195 | 10.2¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,902+ bets · updating |
| Fluo0x2b34…b202 | No | 30 | 92.0¢ | $26 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 23 | 90.0¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 124 | 15.9¢ | $17 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,282 bets |
| rocky420130xf971…0a57 | Yes | 83 | 12.0¢ | $11 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 75 | 14.4¢ | $10 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 10 | 89.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,881 bets |
| tanirus0x9765…a019 | Yes | 59 | 8.8¢ | $8 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 7 | 91.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 89.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 24 | 8.7¢ | $3 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 20 | 11.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 16.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| signalso0xbbc8…4f5b | Yes | 20 | 16.0¢ | $3 | — |
| zzzfff0x9010…d06f | Yes | 20 | 14.0¢ | $3 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 19 | 9.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,772 bets |
| WilliMekkit0x8031…c84c | Yes | 16 | 11.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 9,595 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 14 | 14.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 10 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | No | 1 | 91.3¢ | $1 | — |
| mtm60x734b…2a2c | No | 1 | 80.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Anony7770x3d77…7004 | Yes | 1 | 42.8¢ | $0 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| johngmason0x9f8e…2175 | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| WaterFloww0x5040…96cf | No | 0 | 89.0¢ | $0 | — |
| brra0x9435…91fd | Yes | 0 | 12.6¢ | $0 | — |
| sirjhow010x764a…83d3 | Yes | 0 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | No | 0 | 84.5¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.06M in play