Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | No | 1,594 | 49.9¢ | $901 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| Olcan0x355e…a038 | No | 1,270 | 54.7¢ | $718 | Proven+$6.27 per $100 · 4,948 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,205 | 55.7¢ | $524 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,902 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | Yes | 800 | 40.0¢ | $348 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 1,254 bets |
| Computerdude1110xf186…09b0 | Yes | 728 | 49.4¢ | $317 | — |
| pragmat1sm0x8841…c2d3 | Yes | 660 | 49.2¢ | $287 | — |
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 505 | 46.0¢ | $220 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 311 | 42.7¢ | $176 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | No | 276 | 56.0¢ | $156 | — |
| peter2397840x7d58…cfcc | No | 253 | 49.7¢ | $143 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 1,700 bets |
| Poivre0x714f…66d5 | No | 240 | 37.7¢ | $136 | Positive+$4.99 per $100 · 1,435 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 216 | 56.6¢ | $122 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 202 | 45.7¢ | $114 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 255 | 48.1¢ | $111 | — |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 200 | 46.0¢ | $87 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
| memorymaker20490x9259…c2d3 | No | 130 | 53.6¢ | $73 | — |
| Djibooty0x9690…f2d5 | No | 113 | 53.0¢ | $64 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 135 | 47.6¢ | $59 | — |
| 0x00cd…c0ae | No | 100 | 64.5¢ | $56 | Losing−$1.01 per $100 · 4,124 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 112 | 42.0¢ | $49 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| TRADER4200x80cf…614d | No | 80 | 51.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$8.29 per $100 · 270 bets |
| helpinghans0x6944…7275 | Yes | 100 | 49.0¢ | $44 | — |
| Joebidenswife0x42e1…a1d2 | Yes | 95 | 21.7¢ | $41 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 87 | 40.5¢ | $38 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 80 | 55.5¢ | $35 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 60 | 62.5¢ | $34 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | No | 50 | 64.0¢ | $28 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 50 | 64.0¢ | $28 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | No | 50 | 64.0¢ | $28 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | No | 40 | 45.0¢ | $23 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 146 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | Yes | 50 | 47.0¢ | $22 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| 0x29ef…ddda | Yes | 30 | 44.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 21 | 48.0¢ | $12 | Proven+$14.71 per $100 · 249 bets |
| Miguel2621440x2df5…51ac | No | 17 | 48.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 9,181 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 16 | 46.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 20 | 56.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| mangoking050x442c…3db8 | No | 14 | 36.9¢ | $8 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 10,157 bets |
| SharkyLV0x6ca5…fb42 | Yes | 18 | 58.0¢ | $8 | — |
| j.shi0x5da5…f339 | Yes | 16 | 62.9¢ | $7 | — |
| SecondSecond0x638d…56ff | No | 10 | 53.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xff12…cdc4 | No | 10 | 45.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.81 per $100 · 651 bets |
| PlaceHolderName0xc8ea…bf15 | Yes | 13 | 41.0¢ | $5 | — |
| amaury08390x1d57…3f78 | Yes | 11 | 47.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xa837…34ea | Yes | 7 | 30.0¢ | $3 | — |
| mamofaker240x5e50…c665 | No | 2 | 49.0¢ | $1 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 2 | 64.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| yo20000x6417…8279 | Yes | 2 | 51.2¢ | $1 | — |
| BAO958890x300c…6a92 | No | 1 | 40.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.48 per $100 · 1,903 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 2 | 37.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x799b…1613 | Yes | 2 | 66.9¢ | $1 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 1 | 52.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 1,838 bets |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | No | 1 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x7c71…9338 | No | 1 | 51.0¢ | $0 | — |
| tiongbu0xb777…3ff9 | Yes | 1 | 33.0¢ | $0 | — |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | No | 1 | 49.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420130xf971…0a57 | No | 1 | 53.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdbbc…c072 | Yes | 0 | 52.0¢ | $0 | — |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | No | 0 | 45.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| moneyprint20260x959f…cf58 | No | 0 | 60.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Oklmntrader0x6f67…102c | No | 0 | 40.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | No | 0 | 43.7¢ | $0 | — |
| thelighthouse13370x1bbd…3bed | No | 0 | 52.0¢ | $0 | — |
| razuchiTWO0x6cb1…0f6e | No | 0 | 45.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.99 per $100 · 911 bets |
| QUUN0x0f99…6734 | Yes | 0 | 63.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play