Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 1,796 | 85.6¢ | $1.49K | — |
| 2Sherlock0xbd81…006d | Yes | 726 | 87.9¢ | $603 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Yes |
| 500 |
| 84.6¢ |
| $415 |
| — |
| pragmat1sm0x8841…c2d3 | Yes | 490 | 87.9¢ | $407 | — |
| twerk4hv0x4aac…ced2 | Yes | 448 | 86.9¢ | $372 | — |
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | Yes | 406 | 87.6¢ | $337 | — |
| iutwpfal0xb89f…1c44 | No | 1,909 | 11.8¢ | $325 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 1,531 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 257 | 88.7¢ | $213 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 131,061 bets |
| SteviaDaddy0x1cac…6f43 | No | 707 | 19.0¢ | $120 | — |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 134 | 83.4¢ | $111 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
| Investnow0x97f3…0eba | No | 613 | 9.6¢ | $104 | — |
| TRADER4200x80cf…614d | No | 601 | 7.2¢ | $102 | Proven+$8.29 per $100 · 270 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | Yes | 106 | 83.6¢ | $88 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| balabalababalabala0x2779…239a | No | 500 | 15.6¢ | $85 | Losing−$4.35 per $100 · 2,323 bets |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 72 | 83.6¢ | $60 | — |
| frozenriver0x1437…acfe | No | 302 | 13.7¢ | $51 | Proven+$37.22 per $100 · 20,990 bets |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | Yes | 60 | 85.7¢ | $50 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 755 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 60 | 89.5¢ | $50 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 207 | 22.9¢ | $35 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| sand10x34d0…264e | Yes | 40 | 87.5¢ | $33 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 20 | 84.4¢ | $17 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| ...---...0x2dee…7ffd | Yes | 20 | 87.0¢ | $17 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 17 | 81.1¢ | $14 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 13 | 86.4¢ | $11 | — |
| qqqppp-l10x229c…b966 | No | 55 | 7.3¢ | $9 | — |
| tiongbu0xb777…3ff9 | No | 52 | 27.0¢ | $9 | — |
| new-account-test2220xfe91…4cd3 | Yes | 10 | 87.4¢ | $8 | — |
| tanirus0x9765…a019 | No | 48 | 10.9¢ | $8 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 40 | 27.1¢ | $7 | — |
| moonrise-clump0x48c4…19e5 | Yes | 7 | 72.8¢ | $6 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 24 | 21.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| 0xc19a…66f9 | Yes | 4 | 90.8¢ | $4 | — |
| JakeBeez0x25b9…3058 | No | 20 | 9.1¢ | $3 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 20 | 17.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 20 | 21.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 1,838 bets |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | No | 20 | 11.4¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| 0x9793…913c | Yes | 4 | 82.1¢ | $3 | — |
| Kaseopa0xb232…6438 | Yes | 4 | 91.1¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 12 | 23.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 10 | 21.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 9 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | No | 7 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xf528…7e5b | Yes | 1 | 72.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4dc3…4702 | No | 5 | 35.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | No | 5 | 14.1¢ | $1 | — |
| easyautomate0xd069…d078 | No | 5 | 16.3¢ | $1 | — |
| jmprocess0x46cb…9ee8 | No | 3 | 9.0¢ | $1 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 0 | 90.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| Fluo0x2b34…b202 | No | 1 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420130xf971…0a57 | No | 1 | 22.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | No | 1 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | No | 1 | 13.3¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 83.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | Yes | 0 | 86.3¢ | $0 | — |
| brra0x9435…91fd | No | 0 | 14.8¢ | $0 | — |
| BAO958890x300c…6a92 | No | 0 | 23.4¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.48 per $100 · 1,903 bets |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | Yes | 0 | 83.1¢ | $0 | — |
| LS-ship0xb141…aa3b | Yes | 0 | 81.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 88.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | No | 0 | 21.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 0 | 9.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| scalingrewards0x3c18…32c3 | No | 0 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sirjhow010x764a…83d3 | No | 0 | 17.8¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play