Market · 1 of 9 outcomes
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 10:06 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 2,263 | 39.6¢ | $1.12K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | Yes | 1,665 | 44.0¢ | $841 | Proven+$2.87 per $100 · 306 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 1,500 | 61.7¢ | $758 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,107 bets |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | No | 1,300 | 50.1¢ | $644 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,841 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 844 | 19.2¢ | $426 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 748 | 49.5¢ | $378 | Proven+$2.01 per $100 · 20,221 bets |
| 0x22d8…a92b | No | 430 | 48.0¢ | $213 | New70 settled bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 411 | 56.6¢ | $204 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 288 | 59.2¢ | $146 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 279 | 59.2¢ | $138 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| BetZilla0xc33d…1b02 | Yes | 239 | 50.0¢ | $121 | Proven+$7.90 per $100 · 142 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 196 | 62.0¢ | $99 | Positive+$3.64 per $100 · 14,872 bets |
| 0xc327…ee64 | No | 194 | 51.0¢ | $96 | — |
| SC2610010xa2c0…cbe8 | No | 183 | 38.9¢ | $91 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 165 | 52.5¢ | $83 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | Yes | 117 | 61.0¢ | $59 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 100 | 82.0¢ | $50 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 71 | 56.3¢ | $35 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| 0x03fa…7a50 | No | 63 | 49.4¢ | $31 | — |
| 4-testfollower-hm70xe694…7e7c | No | 59 | 51.5¢ | $29 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 52 | 61.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 12,955 bets |
| 0x4fc8…14a9 | No | 52 | 49.5¢ | $26 | — |
| 0x9de6…e7f0 | Yes | 50 | 62.0¢ | $25 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 44 | 58.6¢ | $22 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 45 | 52.0¢ | $22 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 40 | 49.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| PABLOESCOBAR250x6b49…2e46 | No | 28 | 52.2¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.96 per $100 · 623 bets |
| vlospa0x5814…cb14 | No | 25 | 36.9¢ | $12 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 24 | 62.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$6.94 per $100 · 537 bets |
| kuasuo0x06dc…32b7 | No | 21 | 45.2¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.42 per $100 · 285 bets |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 20 | 82.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$3.48 per $100 · 14,006 bets |
| yudi45450xdb47…5d20 | No | 20 | 64.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x4543…96f4 | No | 18 | 48.5¢ | $9 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 17 | 55.4¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,994 bets |
| 0x4426…f098 | No | 12 | 59.2¢ | $6 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 12 | 66.0¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,985 bets |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 8,012 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 9,194 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 4,971 bets |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 10,906 bets |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 9,458 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 12,017 bets |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| asdfasdf111120xaf53…ca3b | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | — |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 10 | 56.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | Yes | 8 | 52.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.63 per $100 · 2,089 bets |
| Klanto0x98e3…9208 | No | 8 | 54.2¢ | $4 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 7 | 50.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 29,386 bets |
| Paoul19920x3991…3d0f | No | 6 | 53.2¢ | $3 | — |
| Obirapitanga0x1fee…9980 | Yes | 5 | 59.2¢ | $3 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 5 | 42.0¢ | $2 | — |
| yo20000x6417…8279 | Yes | 3 | 49.2¢ | $2 | — |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | No | 3 | 50.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Shadowmarket1210x1157…c118 | No | 2 | 54.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd45b…7ae6 | Yes | 1 | 52.0¢ | $1 | — |
| lifeisahighway0x6a5a…ac7d | No | 1 | 76.9¢ | $0 | — |
| hokinado0xffee…ea6b | No | 1 | 61.0¢ | $0 | — |
| slyfox110xe418…eaab | No | 0 | 45.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Poltergeist940x07bb…fcca | No | 0 | 52.2¢ | $0 | — |
| realmgow0x8526…8d34 | No | 0 | 60.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.28 per $100 · 119 bets |
| Superchai9990xf769…3e53 | Yes | 0 | 52.2¢ | $0 | — |
| bertilio0x6c28…1041 | Yes | 0 | 41.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Aggggaa120x498a…a9ee | No | 0 | 48.0¢ | $0 | — |
| gullmarc0xa340…e3ff | No | 0 | 60.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 63.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 47.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 53.9¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Fed decision · January 2027 · 3 events · $74.4K in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.