Market · 3 of 9 outcomes
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:27 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | No | 1,300 | 80.9¢ | $1.18K | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| SC2610010xa2c0…cbe8 | No | 183 | 90.5¢ | $166 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 117 | 80.2¢ | $106 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 117 | 80.2¢ | $106 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 1,005 | 14.5¢ | $96 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 70 | 81.4¢ | $63 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 67 | 84.4¢ | $61 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 469 | 18.0¢ | $45 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 47 | 78.0¢ | $43 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| 0xB16B00B50x8a7b…782f | Yes | 304 | 11.2¢ | $29 | — |
| 4-testfollower-hm70xe694…7e7c | No | 28 | 85.7¢ | $25 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 238 | 16.6¢ | $23 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| vlospa0x5814…cb14 | No | 19 | 90.5¢ | $17 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 143 | 10.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 12 | 88.5¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 193,297 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 100 | 24.0¢ | $10 | — |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | No | 10 | 87.6¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x4426…f098 | No | 8 | 83.7¢ | $8 | — |
| rocky420150x2c1a…42d8 | Yes | 73 | 14.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.77 per $100 · 9,642 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 7 | 84.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 51 | 23.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 28 | 14.9¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 2 | 72.0¢ | $2 | — |
| mangostein0x544f…4cb9 | No | 2 | 80.8¢ | $2 | — |
| trader-c6777f270xc677…677a | Yes | 9 | 11.0¢ | $1 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 9 | 22.0¢ | $1 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 7 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 6 | 15.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| zyhly50xb6b0…4696 | Yes | 4 | 25.9¢ | $0 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 3 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 2 | 26.2¢ | $0 | — |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 1 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$10.47 per $100 · 49,814+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| gcjames0x43fd…59d3 | Yes | 0 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Fed decision · January 2027 · 3 events · $72.6K in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.