4.95%

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026.
2. §2Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026.
4. §4If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
5. §5The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).