Market · 5 of 43 outcomes
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:12 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 13 events · $63.7M in play
Exactly one of this event's 43 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 6 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
11 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | Yes | 608,714 | 0.9¢ | $14.3K | Proven+$11.17 per $100 · 2,364 bets |
| Chungvicular0x41ea…7a3d | Yes | 375,000 | 1.1¢ | $8.81K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 343,455 | 1.2¢ | $8.07K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 314,000 | 0.4¢ | $7.38K | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| ifyouloveme0x5a0d…fa97 | Yes | 216,805 | 1.6¢ | $5.09K | Positive+$2.57 per $100 · 549 bets |
| TedforPrez290x33ce…fcc0 | Yes | 202,766 | 0.9¢ | $4.77K | New12 settled bets |
| basedcigany0x0015…d5b0 | No | 3,560 | 98.6¢ | $3.48K | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 588 bets |
| Ader-5150x4145…d4dd | No | 3,070 | 97.8¢ | $3K | New25 settled bets |
| truthteller0x30e4…5102 | Yes | 55,988 | 1.8¢ | $1.32K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 3,480 bets |
| thanks4playing0xaa6e…04fe | Yes | 50,000 | 1.4¢ | $1.18K | New9 settled bets |
| gfhnjyt8650x29eb…6e8f | No | 1,024 | 97.8¢ | $999 | New24 settled bets |
| Totobo0xe196…549a | Yes | 37,985 | 2.6¢ | $893 | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 35,345 | 0.8¢ | $831 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,297 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 25,000 | 0.7¢ | $588 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| TaxIsTheft0xa7b5…fa78 | Yes | 25,000 | 1.6¢ | $587 | Losing−$1.33 per $100 · 355 bets |
| Bperil0xc624…ee24 | Yes | 22,667 | 1.2¢ | $533 | Proven+$3.56 per $100 · 1,974 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 21,173 | 1.7¢ | $498 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | Yes | 19,765 | 2.3¢ | $464 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | No | 456 | 97.3¢ | $446 | Losing−$2.28 per $100 · 6,744 bets |
| 0xc20c…e2bd | Yes | 15,000 | 1.5¢ | $353 | — |
| 54763465680xa87d…64af | No | 307 | 97.8¢ | $300 | — |
| 4364340x3547…ba0a | No | 303 | 99.1¢ | $296 | New20 settled bets |
| Airmoon0x301d…c1a0 | No | 280 | 97.6¢ | $273 | New64 settled bets |
| Demooiaser0x0247…ba82 | No | 275 | 98.2¢ | $269 | New18 settled bets |
| qwvgbfujy780x4af4…f18c | No | 261 | 97.7¢ | $255 | New17 settled bets |
| Logan.0x5109…5e9c | Yes | 10,585 | 0.8¢ | $249 | Proven+$6.53 per $100 · 2,293 bets |
| immanuelcan0x04b9…79e0 | Yes | 10,450 | 1.0¢ | $246 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 2,550 bets |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 10,000 | 1.7¢ | $235 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| plumbis0x77fb…266c | Yes | 10,000 | 2.0¢ | $235 | Proven+$3.38 per $100 · 136 bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 9,607 | 1.1¢ | $226 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 217 | 97.7¢ | $212 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 8,880 | 0.8¢ | $209 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| 0x0680…600d | No | 206 | 99.1¢ | $201 | New21 settled bets |
| Mikejg2-9770x215b…113c | Yes | 8,427 | 1.8¢ | $198 | New0 settled bets |
| Jessica01fcre0xc4bc…d2ae | No | 202 | 99.1¢ | $197 | — |
| ArchBishopSusan0x76c8…0439 | Yes | 8,339 | 2.2¢ | $196 | New65 settled bets |
| Roberttt0xb376…31e4 | No | 199 | 50.0¢ | $195 | — |
| Williamwww0x8163…3e02 | No | 195 | 50.0¢ | $190 | New25 settled bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 7,200 | 1.0¢ | $169 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| Holtinator0x0252…91a2 | Yes | 7,147 | 1.3¢ | $168 | New49 settled bets |
| Ambula0xf30b…09a9 | No | 158 | 98.1¢ | $154 | — |
| chaimaaron0x5abe…0b32 | Yes | 6,364 | 1.6¢ | $150 | New40 settled bets |
| insidero0x3eae…5e6d | Yes | 6,359 | 0.9¢ | $149 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 514 bets |
| Michal.S0xee2a…ff8a | Yes | 5,660 | 1.9¢ | $133 | — |
| SHILLWALTON0x12c9…2294 | Yes | 5,556 | 0.9¢ | $131 | New27 settled bets |
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | Yes | 5,445 | 1.6¢ | $128 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 6,881 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 5,273 | 1.4¢ | $124 | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,305 bets |
| 0xd07f…502f | No | 123 | 99.0¢ | $120 | — |
| 0xbdb0…6e2d | No | 122 | 99.0¢ | $119 | — |
| madlaboratoor0x17fa…e908 | Yes | 5,000 | 1.3¢ | $118 | New27 settled bets |
| longpole0xc281…2ae2 | No | 120 | 98.3¢ | $117 | — |
| 0xec70…d566 | No | 114 | 99.0¢ | $111 | — |
| 0x4777…b90f | No | 112 | 98.0¢ | $110 | New19 settled bets |
| LoooNder0x0c69…74cd | No | 112 | 98.1¢ | $109 | New42 settled bets |
| Xzibit690x0af4…89b4 | Yes | 4,632 | 2.4¢ | $109 | Proven+$5.57 per $100 · 707 bets |
| bigstackss0x8d11…5c25 | Yes | 4,545 | 1.1¢ | $107 | — |
| 0x3105…f82c | No | 108 | 99.0¢ | $106 | New4 settled bets |
| shudd0x6884…417c | Yes | 4,457 | 1.1¢ | $105 | Break-even−$0.86 per $100 · 357 bets |
| 0xffd4…2916 | No | 106 | 99.0¢ | $104 | — |
| 0xbdab…edbf | No | 105 | 99.0¢ | $103 | — |
| 0x1dde…d9aa | No | 101 | 99.0¢ | $99 | New18 settled bets |
| staceyhuff0xd8a3…b7c2 | No | 94 | 99.0¢ | $92 | — |
| ZachB660xc880…8380 | Yes | 3,750 | 0.8¢ | $88 | — |
| LinkinSimpson0x3455…cea9 | Yes | 3,732 | 1.5¢ | $88 | New12 settled bets |
| jgiz0x93c2…2bd9 | Yes | 3,574 | 1.4¢ | $84 | — |
| ChetterHummin0xc406…07d9 | Yes | 3,500 | 0.4¢ | $82 | — |
| 0x3fa1…81ee | No | 84 | 99.0¢ | $82 | New18 settled bets |
| 0x8517…145e | No | 81 | 99.4¢ | $79 | — |
| 7ione40x3bf2…8b9f | No | 75 | 99.4¢ | $74 | New77 settled bets |
| tutrtoj2130xc312…97bd | No | 75 | 99.5¢ | $74 | — |
| Donkov0xbc54…680f | Yes | 3,000 | 0.9¢ | $70 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| SnowLain0x049c…c1ff | Yes | 2,727 | 1.1¢ | $64 | New5 settled bets |
| lemores50xcbcd…4e6a | No | 65 | 98.2¢ | $64 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 2,642 | 1.0¢ | $62 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
| simplystupid1880x682c…17ae | Yes | 2,640 | 1.1¢ | $62 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,501 bets |
| zhaoyu0x43b0…7bcd | No | 63 | 97.7¢ | $61 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 139 bets |
| rplc-ftbl0xac4c…2200 | No | 61 | 98.2¢ | $59 | — |
| drrtbb.btc0x7552…677c | No | 61 | 99.1¢ | $59 | New70 settled bets |
| Yosis0x244e…7851 | Yes | 2,500 | 2.0¢ | $59 | New0 settled bets |
| bwcqaxqk0xf518…77a9 | No | 57 | 99.0¢ | $56 | — |
| 0x6871…49dd | No | 57 | 99.0¢ | $56 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 114 bets |
| biggothgirlboots0xef5f…7334 | No | 57 | 98.2¢ | $55 | — |
| buhuifangqi0x6fd2…c472 | No | 57 | 99.1¢ | $55 | Losing−$1.02 per $100 · 122 bets |
| 0x746a…03ff | No | 56 | 98.5¢ | $55 | New91 settled bets |
| yahWQpROLE0x763c…ed18 | No | 56 | 99.0¢ | $54 | New93 settled bets |
| bluvjigl0x1276…adff | No | 56 | 99.0¢ | $54 | New94 settled bets |
| sepbdyjg0x4a31…3f4e | No | 55 | 99.0¢ | $54 | — |
| mwqgvyjn0xe484…b109 | No | 55 | 99.0¢ | $53 | — |
| relaxingbar0x19b1…45d6 | Yes | 1,798 | 2.7¢ | $42 | New29 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 1,743 | 1.1¢ | $41 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| LinaBell0xf0ed…47d8 | Yes | 1,735 | 1.8¢ | $41 | Positive+$4.84 per $100 · 2,416 bets |
| pika2zero0xcfdc…5a2e | Yes | 1,580 | 1.1¢ | $37 | — |
6 accounts bet both sides equally · 3.15K shares each side · Show
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