December 31, 2026

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will Russia invade another country in 2026?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
4. §4The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.