Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
Russia Invades Another Country · 2 events · $278K in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NeH0x11fc…dc48 | No | 50,000 | 87.5¢ | $47K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 159 bets |
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 | No | 49,645 | 89.9¢ | $46.7K | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No | 32,382 | 90.8¢ | $30.4K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No | 24,164 | 91.7¢ | $22.7K | New83 settled bets |
| VladimirPooper0xa53e…218d | No | 18,978 | 94.4¢ | $17.8K | — |
| TronOG0x77c3…00c8 | No | 15,222 | 91.0¢ | $14.3K | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 404 bets |
| DFK0x0dde…94c3 | No | 9,680 | 89.1¢ | $9.1K | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 713 bets |
| megafom0xb3bd…f543 | No | 7,287 | 92.0¢ | $6.85K | — |
| Jerzy0x5943…2ef2 | No | 6,000 | 90.7¢ | $5.64K | Proven+$5.52 per $100 · 363 bets |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | Yes | 70,938 | 13.8¢ | $4.26K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| yevhenry0x0164…9ed6 | No | 3,500 | 87.4¢ | $3.29K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| prognozu0x8199…bb6d | No | 2,624 | 92.7¢ | $2.47K | — |
| cocoico3o0xd694…3fa0 | No | 2,350 | 93.0¢ | $2.21K | — |
| hellokitty1170x6f56…075d | No | 2,226 | 92.5¢ | $2.09K | — |
| Kwon1230x5da1…54a3 | No | 2,209 | 93.7¢ | $2.08K | — |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b040x9507…7b04 | No | 2,000 | 84.5¢ | $1.88K | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,709 bets |
| ScientiaRex0x8f0b…8be2 | No | 1,923 | 89.2¢ | $1.81K | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 1,826 | 83.0¢ | $1.72K | Proven+$14.85 per $100 · 244 bets |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | No | 1,824 | 91.3¢ | $1.71K | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| 0xd54d…1adc | Yes | 25,979 | 9.2¢ | $1.56K | — |
| ausername0xfef5…c8a6 | No | 1,549 | 86.9¢ | $1.46K | — |
| Jchan29470x7cda…8832 | No | 1,505 | 88.7¢ | $1.41K | — |
| Bromley860x0b65…293e | No | 1,400 | 90.0¢ | $1.32K | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,095 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 1,369 | 91.0¢ | $1.29K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No | 1,359 | 92.0¢ | $1.28K | Losing−$3.36 per $100 · 266 bets |
| ololololololololo0x2c4c…cb39 | No | 1,333 | 92.0¢ | $1.25K | Losing−$8.48 per $100 · 188 bets |
| archaic0x1f0a…f7aa | No | 1,303 | 94.0¢ | $1.22K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 3,357 bets |
| whysoslow0x8a98…2619 | Yes | 18,333 | 7.6¢ | $1.1K | New0 settled bets |
| bifurcatio0xa9ea…1043 | No | 1,136 | 88.0¢ | $1.07K | — |
| Vanga30000xf5e8…a1ce | No | 1,042 | 92.8¢ | $979 | — |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $940 | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 1,000 | 92.0¢ | $940 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| DumbOracle0xa9ec…57d5 | No | 983 | 93.1¢ | $924 | — |
| Muookjh0xc98b…c581 | Yes | 14,455 | 10.4¢ | $867 | — |
| UniversalCarrier0x56b1…0e9f | Yes | 13,722 | 7.5¢ | $823 | New56 settled bets |
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 845 | 94.6¢ | $795 | New13 settled bets |
| inrock300xd576…d5e3 | Yes | 11,860 | 6.4¢ | $712 | New97 settled bets |
| vsesoso0x07ce…f696 | Yes | 11,468 | 6.2¢ | $688 | New3 settled bets |
| LeftieFTW0x066a…550d | No | 729 | 92.0¢ | $685 | — |
| 0x9152…69a5 | No | 700 | 92.4¢ | $658 | — |
| latvianboy0x5bae…2955 | No | 689 | 89.6¢ | $648 | — |
| 0xc95f…317f | Yes | 9,224 | 14.1¢ | $553 | — |
| DrA11c0m30x5f57…fd0e | No | 550 | 90.0¢ | $517 | New39 settled bets |
| CP-directional0x07e1…27af | No | 538 | 93.0¢ | $506 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 141 bets |
| Wrapt0xdc9e…86f0 | No | 536 | 93.2¢ | $504 | — |
| 0x3eb7…a89e | No | 518 | 89.0¢ | $487 | — |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | No | 500 | 91.6¢ | $470 | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 3,050 bets |
| DiaMat0x5ff7…f7f0 | No | 500 | 94.0¢ | $470 | New96 settled bets |
| madjutsu0x61e9…b13a | No | 500 | 94.0¢ | $470 | — |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 500 | 90.0¢ | $470 | New96 settled bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 463 | 89.9¢ | $435 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | No | 447 | 89.5¢ | $420 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 7,000 | 9.0¢ | $420 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| alpha-110xfc9d…3776 | Yes | 6,879 | 8.0¢ | $413 | — |
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | No | 437 | 90.6¢ | $411 | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| Gaujmalietis0xd883…4fd7 | No | 415 | 91.0¢ | $390 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,573 bets |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | No | 400 | 92.0¢ | $376 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| petruccci0x9370…9e88 | No | 400 | 91.0¢ | $376 | — |
| wellwell0xfd76…6c23 | No | 392 | 92.6¢ | $369 | — |
| KrdRL0x63c1…70d7 | No | 350 | 85.7¢ | $329 | — |
| xyz99990x49b3…6486 | Yes | 5,391 | 11.6¢ | $323 | — |
| FantomasAzul0xe733…8ed4 | Yes | 4,997 | 7.4¢ | $300 | — |
| Prince9988770xffe0…61cc | Yes | 4,679 | 7.3¢ | $281 | — |
| 0x2620…78f5 | Yes | 4,267 | 10.4¢ | $256 | — |
| SITIFUKUDZIN0xc406…ba02 | Yes | 3,421 | 9.6¢ | $205 | — |
| nketiah170x6715…eb49 | Yes | 3,405 | 8.5¢ | $204 | — |
| 0x7ee7…17b0 | Yes | 3,058 | 11.9¢ | $183 | — |
| Yosharooo0x12ce…f594 | Yes | 3,005 | 8.6¢ | $180 | — |
| e.tensor0xf855…7f43 | Yes | 2,500 | 8.0¢ | $150 | — |
| 0x4102…d397 | Yes | 2,373 | 5.7¢ | $142 | Proven+$26.65 per $100 · 177 bets |
| 0xb24c…1781 | Yes | 2,171 | 11.5¢ | $130 | — |
| Jacksontye0x92d1…0154 | Yes | 2,124 | 9.0¢ | $127 | — |
| latvia0xe0d6…8d7a | Yes | 2,033 | 12.3¢ | $122 | — |
| Lucasq0x1237…bdba | Yes | 1,946 | 9.0¢ | $117 | — |
| 0x8cc2…64de | Yes | 1,887 | 13.7¢ | $113 | — |
| evalso0x4222…aa99 | Yes | 1,814 | 11.0¢ | $109 | New30 settled bets |
| 0x6d87…c442 | Yes | 1,612 | 12.3¢ | $97 | — |
| 0xf40b…8427 | Yes | 1,538 | 13.0¢ | $92 | — |
| Djdjfjfhdbdjjdf0x6797…7697 | Yes | 1,429 | 7.0¢ | $86 | — |
| makronski0xd768…d483 | Yes | 1,250 | 8.3¢ | $75 | — |
| Odinsdottir0x5d01…6ca9 | Yes | 1,000 | 8.6¢ | $60 | — |
| blackswan20x4144…47aa | Yes | 940 | 7.1¢ | $56 | New4 settled bets |
| petryshakm0xd453…1f27 | Yes | 884 | 9.8¢ | $53 | — |
| 0x869a…bd64 | Yes | 833 | 9.0¢ | $50 | — |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 792 | 7.6¢ | $48 | — |
| Blurry-Ball0x4734…60b1 | Yes | 773 | 10.5¢ | $46 | — |
| 0x2402…1438 | Yes | 765 | 13.1¢ | $46 | — |
| tirik0x18be…88a1 | Yes | 676 | 14.0¢ | $41 | — |
| atlant-ar0x5a75…d083 | Yes | 672 | 15.0¢ | $40 | — |
| Oranges270x7795…394c | Yes | 668 | 9.1¢ | $40 | — |
| Volku0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | 620 | 12.3¢ | $37 | — |
| yu252525250xbb22…710a | Yes | 619 | 13.2¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x9e00…f029 | Yes | 599 | 8.9¢ | $36 | — |
| ganni980xb74b…d765 | Yes | 556 | 9.0¢ | $33 | — |
| 0x2573…61d6 | Yes | 555 | 9.0¢ | $33 | — |
| 0x00d2…b8c6 | Yes | 550 | 6.0¢ | $33 | — |
| vlad94860x76b9…9331 | Yes | 542 | 14.0¢ | $33 | — |
| DeadShadow0xcc4b…25d2 | Yes | 541 | 7.0¢ | $32 | — |
| 1234lajdsf0x6259…c692 | Yes | 500 | 6.0¢ | $30 | — |
| 0xa9dc…01c9 | Yes | 500 | 8.0¢ | $30 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.