Market · 41 of 54 outcomes
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 13 events · $63.6M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| asdfadfasdf10xfa87…c2a0 | Yes | 500,000 | 0.2¢ | $250 | — |
| Yelowyolo0x8a81…58b0 | Yes | 449,993 | 0.4¢ | $225 | Proven+$8.81 per $100 · 488 bets |
| QJjjnWOC0x06a1…d171 | No | 126 | 99.4¢ | $126 | — |
| nQOsJjZi0xd817…d4de | No | 125 | 99.4¢ | $125 | — |
| IQkMPb0x5125…5b74 | No | 114 | 99.4¢ | $114 | — |
| joeramirez0x6e6a…05ff | No | 111 | 99.6¢ | $111 | — |
| plvppq0xd601…45cf | No | 109 | 99.4¢ | $109 | — |
| marcusbranch0x7db1…aeaa | No | 101 | 99.9¢ | $101 | — |
| ychurch0x865a…70a2 | No | 94 | 99.8¢ | $94 | — |
| 0x9178…a2b2 | Yes | 180,822 | 0.2¢ | $90 | Proven+$6.27 per $100 · 2,206 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 170,958 | 0.2¢ | $85 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| PolyOG0x1655…a669 | Yes | 130,000 | 0.2¢ | $65 | — |
| ydavidson0xf76a…2248 | No | 63 | 99.6¢ | $63 | — |
| phaNNtom0x9b5b…c45c | No | 60 | 99.5¢ | $60 | — |
| 26213b0xe6e7…1dc6 | No | 60 | 99.4¢ | $60 | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 119,781 | 0.8¢ | $60 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,297 bets |
| DJHANNA0x99ee…502d | No | 50 | 99.4¢ | $50 | — |
| raraxd12340xc930…64d9 | Yes | 83,735 | 0.2¢ | $42 | — |
| 325ac70x7b85…d94c | No | 41 | 99.4¢ | $41 | — |
| 980ll0x460b…d621 | No | 37 | 99.4¢ | $37 | — |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | Yes | 52,500 | 0.4¢ | $26 | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 967 bets |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 50,999 | 0.5¢ | $25 | Positive+$12.21 per $100 · 3,931 bets |
| 566f0x359c…fade | No | 25 | 99.4¢ | $25 | — |
| 10KWarrior0x8188…0667 | Yes | 50,000 | 0.2¢ | $25 | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 674 bets |
| pepe110xeec9…2c45 | No | 25 | 99.4¢ | $25 | — |
| tiger5550xd600…b66e | Yes | 42,240 | 0.4¢ | $21 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 495 bets |
| pizzaallosqualo0x801b…e036 | Yes | 40,420 | 0.6¢ | $20 | Positive+$9.96 per $100 · 180 bets |
| 120be0x7f11…564a | No | 20 | 99.4¢ | $20 | — |
| Cryptodeadbeat0xa6ec…14e2 | Yes | 36,540 | 0.2¢ | $18 | — |
| coolben0x145e…2d67 | No | 18 | 99.4¢ | $18 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 281 bets |
| JustCrazy0xc21e…0215 | Yes | 35,875 | 0.1¢ | $18 | Positive+$6.92 per $100 · 1,770 bets |
| 875Fec0xba24…059f | No | 16 | 99.4¢ | $16 | — |
| 0xa727…1e15 | Yes | 31,000 | 0.1¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x7bb7…828a | No | 15 | 99.4¢ | $15 | — |
| 65y0xdfff…1be6 | No | 15 | 99.4¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x6276…2dd9 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $15 | Losing−$3.39 per $100 · 368 bets |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,324 bets |
| 0xc921…6425 | No | 15 | 99.4¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x01dc…fe95 | No | 15 | 99.4¢ | $15 | — |
| EQWEQ0xfd82…3f83 | No | 15 | 99.4¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xe732…d1ca | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xa05c…1be7 | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x9bff…938e | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x340e…c01e | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xbbe6…50d3 | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x63fe…c5c5 | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xd33a…4f8c | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x192a…bd19 | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xb8a6…8f3f | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x3f16…7d6f | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x83c1…c32d | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| Aayaan835894920xd4c1…afa6 | No | 13 | 99.5¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x6684…30df | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x1727…b513 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xddcb…cfe0 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x288b…a8f5 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x77e6…b9c8 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| Stewardi0x0ff0…48a5 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x4279…dfbd | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x8dd6…dca1 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x5732…df07 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $13 | — |
| RobXK0x60b2…3cce | Yes | 25,000 | 0.7¢ | $13 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| erwq0x7b1d…ca64 | No | 13 | 99.4¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x8cdd…8ccd | No | 12 | 99.4¢ | $12 | — |
| OOUIO0x843c…d6fc | No | 12 | 99.4¢ | $12 | — |
| CalKlein0x4965…02bc | No | 12 | 99.4¢ | $12 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 265 bets |
| 0x0256…a632 | No | 12 | 99.4¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A0xa3a4…5106 | Yes | 22,800 | 0.8¢ | $11 | Positive+$136.59 per $100 · 601 bets |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | Yes | 20,795 | 0.7¢ | $10 | New41 settled bets |
| RaymondVan0x5677…2ce9 | Yes | 20,411 | 0.6¢ | $10 | Losing−$4.16 per $100 · 748 bets |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 20,000 | 0.8¢ | $10 | Losing−$2.28 per $100 · 6,744 bets |
| KKchallenge0xfe03…f14f | Yes | 20,000 | 0.5¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.56 per $100 · 560 bets |
| 987hy0x0903…e6eb | Yes | 19,999 | 0.6¢ | $10 | — |
| NNYYM0xab8f…a6e9 | Yes | 18,000 | 0.5¢ | $9 | — |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 16,247 | 0.2¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| 00kkk0x4ec8…08ec | Yes | 16,000 | 0.5¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 14,550 | 0.7¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 14,444 | 0.7¢ | $7 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 14,253 | 0.8¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| Zypf70x7243…83f0 | Yes | 14,000 | 0.1¢ | $7 | Proven+$6.94 per $100 · 2,720 bets |
| SDFS1120x7d3f…991a | Yes | 13,999 | 0.6¢ | $7 | — |
| Justintx0x2097…fe91 | Yes | 13,900 | 0.2¢ | $7 | — |
| burza0xe499…d297 | Yes | 13,616 | 0.7¢ | $7 | — |
| ddalkkak0x16bd…e288 | Yes | 13,331 | 0.4¢ | $7 | Positive+$7.19 per $100 · 657 bets |
| gr4rr0xc1cb…8cb5 | Yes | 12,000 | 0.5¢ | $6 | — |
| 66709890xd660…b669 | Yes | 11,999 | 0.6¢ | $6 | — |
| DFF55550x781c…3f41 | Yes | 10,999 | 0.5¢ | $5 | — |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | Yes | 10,750 | 0.2¢ | $5 | Proven+$7.03 per $100 · 1,581 bets |
| jason0090xb150…41af | Yes | 10,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| FG4FF670x734f…4c5e | Yes | 9,999 | 0.6¢ | $5 | — |
| TouchDownThana0xecfa…3c6f | Yes | 9,999 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x202d…e419 | Yes | 9,000 | 0.5¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xb7de…b802 | Yes | 8,533 | 0.8¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.99 per $100 · 625 bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 7,909 | 0.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| DoctorLecter0x7abb…46f9 | Yes | 7,380 | 0.7¢ | $4 | New49 settled bets |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | Yes | 6,198 | 0.7¢ | $3 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| kqwjehrbqwemn0x92f6…bd97 | Yes | 6,000 | 0.7¢ | $3 | New65 settled bets |
| konsomida0x60c6…247f | Yes | 5,500 | 0.6¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.21 per $100 · 750 bets |
| zheyufacai0xbb7c…7c86 | Yes | 5,361 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 91 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.