Market · 11 of 43 outcomes
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 13 events · $63.7M in play
Exactly one of this event's 43 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pizzabillgates0xa771…162d | Yes | 1,638,333 | 0.7¢ | $7.37K | New15 settled bets |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | No | 5,000 | 99.6¢ | $4.98K | Losing−$2.30 per $100 · 6,748 bets |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 319,000 | 0.4¢ | $1.44K | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| Forrester260x1a85…c99a | Yes | 59,778 | 0.6¢ | $269 | New1 settled bet |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 56,140 | 0.5¢ | $253 | Losing−$1.34 per $100 · 16,309 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 51,667 | 0.4¢ | $232 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | Yes | 50,000 | 0.7¢ | $225 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 47,802 | 0.3¢ | $215 | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,660 bets |
| JeremY0x7b01…2e4c | Yes | 40,000 | 0.5¢ | $180 | New0 settled bets |
| kaoyan0xbbaa…a28e | No | 150 | 99.6¢ | $149 | — |
| 0x36f8…dd6a | Yes | 32,742 | 0.6¢ | $147 | New59 settled bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 32,179 | 0.7¢ | $145 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,027 bets |
| 0x3921…99e1 | No | 124 | 99.5¢ | $124 | New3 settled bets |
| 0xf053…cf44 | No | 118 | 99.5¢ | $118 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 25,000 | 0.7¢ | $112 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| Bondoooor0x5c8d…7f99 | Yes | 23,000 | 0.3¢ | $103 | Proven+$4.02 per $100 · 132 bets |
| morganhutchinson0xb926…00cc | No | 90 | 99.7¢ | $90 | — |
| Xirax0x3825…760a | Yes | 13,924 | 0.6¢ | $63 | New13 settled bets |
| ArchBishopSusan0x76c8…0439 | Yes | 12,899 | 0.8¢ | $58 | New65 settled bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 12,692 | 0.8¢ | $57 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,129 bets |
| erwerrw0xf134…fd8e | No | 55 | 99.5¢ | $55 | — |
| hose0xcc29…7774 | Yes | 10,714 | 0.7¢ | $48 | Proven+$3.21 per $100 · 274 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 42 | 99.5¢ | $42 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 9,006 | 0.6¢ | $41 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 8,900 | 0.8¢ | $40 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 8,645 | 0.3¢ | $39 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| dxtrdh0xc65c…2d93 | No | 37 | 99.7¢ | $37 | — |
| dgtrhdh0x85db…e694 | No | 37 | 99.6¢ | $37 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 7,773 | 0.8¢ | $35 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,648 bets |
| fsdhrdy0x168b…e868 | No | 31 | 99.5¢ | $31 | New37 settled bets |
| 383278323838230x2ef7…85ec | Yes | 6,188 | 0.3¢ | $28 | Proven+$38.68 per $100 · 294 bets |
| cooliensiemsien0x35d6…5467 | Yes | 6,000 | 0.5¢ | $27 | New29 settled bets |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | Yes | 5,671 | 0.6¢ | $26 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
| Logan.0x5109…5e9c | Yes | 5,585 | 0.8¢ | $25 | Proven+$6.53 per $100 · 2,293 bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 5,118 | 0.7¢ | $23 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| Spirit-LT0x1851…ae47 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.5¢ | $23 | Positive+$4.05 per $100 · 1,811 bets |
| 0xfbfd…ce48 | Yes | 4,545 | 0.5¢ | $20 | — |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 4,503 | 0.6¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| d3860x8ebf…78e2 | No | 20 | 99.4¢ | $20 | — |
| twopac0x7e76…a51d | No | 20 | 99.3¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 214 bets |
| Liquidifier0x4818…bf0b | Yes | 4,137 | 0.7¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,668 bets |
| 0xbb60…e832 | Yes | 4,000 | 0.5¢ | $18 | — |
| Lisa62580xcaac…f39e | No | 18 | 99.7¢ | $17 | — |
| NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | Yes | 3,649 | 0.8¢ | $16 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 28,074 bets |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | Yes | 3,568 | 0.6¢ | $16 | Losing−$12.60 per $100 · 4,915 bets |
| ChetterHummin0xc406…07d9 | Yes | 3,500 | 0.4¢ | $16 | — |
| CynthiaDora0xbd11…3468 | No | 15 | 99.5¢ | $15 | — |
| SM000x782f…bda7 | Yes | 3,333 | 0.3¢ | $15 | Losing−$2.80 per $100 · 221 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 3,070 | 0.8¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| 0x5e3a…765f | No | 14 | 99.3¢ | $14 | New22 settled bets |
| WalkerEdi0xbd72…5e04 | No | 14 | 99.5¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x2263…34c5 | Yes | 3,000 | 0.6¢ | $13 | New0 settled bets |
| 0xb48b…cad8 | No | 14 | 99.3¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x1896…6b0a | No | 13 | 99.3¢ | $13 | New25 settled bets |
| DoctorLecter0x7abb…46f9 | Yes | 2,786 | 0.7¢ | $13 | New49 settled bets |
| 0x2051…cf88 | No | 12 | 99.3¢ | $12 | New23 settled bets |
| 0xc64d…9acd | No | 12 | 99.3¢ | $12 | — |
| BOHRIS0x8f6d…9315 | Yes | 2,625 | 0.8¢ | $12 | — |
| FreeCityIndividual0x098e…6fa2 | Yes | 2,607 | 0.2¢ | $12 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 5,150 bets |
| 0xe3b4…61b2 | No | 12 | 99.3¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xb15f…dad8 | No | 11 | 99.3¢ | $11 | — |
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | Yes | 2,500 | 0.8¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 6,909 bets |
| 0x8ded…0fdb | No | 11 | 99.3¢ | $11 | — |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | 2,010 | 0.5¢ | $9 | Proven+$94.70 per $100 · 198 bets |
| AnEggplant0xc97d…732b | Yes | 2,000 | 0.7¢ | $9 | — |
| tomi051002620xa220…4c26 | No | 9 | 99.5¢ | $9 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 1,957 | 0.5¢ | $9 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| 0x4e2f…31a5 | No | 9 | 99.8¢ | $9 | New41 settled bets |
| Cookedtan0xb48b…648e | Yes | 1,858 | 0.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 5,309 bets |
| Armo88880xacd0…25d6 | Yes | 1,670 | 0.4¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x66f0…db06 | Yes | 1,550 | 0.6¢ | $7 | New24 settled bets |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | Yes | 1,520 | 0.8¢ | $7 | — |
| Siziriv0x8e9e…38e4 | Yes | 1,500 | 0.4¢ | $7 | Positive+$7.10 per $100 · 6,762 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 1,477 | 0.6¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| Andrew64320x0138…e76f | No | 7 | 99.7¢ | $6 | New88 settled bets |
| Atmiko310xbc71…511e | No | 6 | 99.6¢ | $6 | — |
| jinchowwoa0xafe6…0235 | No | 5 | 99.3¢ | $5 | — |
| ile-on0x3962…e1f7 | No | 5 | 99.6¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 125 bets |
| Carolyn67220x9b4d…b47e | No | 5 | 99.7¢ | $5 | — |
| Bobby53340xc237…a5dc | No | 5 | 99.7¢ | $4 | — |
| Dejmanka0x1c29…5e43 | No | 4 | 99.4¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 113 bets |
| Joshua88040xc01a…32fa | No | 4 | 99.7¢ | $4 | — |
| Lina210xc1fd…0acb | No | 4 | 99.7¢ | $4 | — |
| gfhghj0x449e…0e4b | No | 4 | 99.4¢ | $4 | New70 settled bets |
| Natalie96820xf496…d21f | No | 4 | 99.7¢ | $4 | — |
| Pertoa0x8d23…a1f7 | No | 2 | 99.4¢ | $2 | — |
| vigfood4040xd57b…daf2 | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | New20 settled bets |
| 0x4595…b770 | No | 1 | 99.5¢ | $1 | New27 settled bets |
| merrillvince0xc181…852a | No | 1 | 99.3¢ | $1 | — |
| ciberrahex0xb7ee…0b13 | No | 1 | 99.4¢ | $1 | — |
| HopeFields6830x5a3f…3d1f | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | New44 settled bets |
| honreserektus0xc69b…1134 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 88bf6830xe8a7…beb6 | No | 1 | 99.3¢ | $1 | — |
| ooppl0xbce1…4a56 | No | 1 | 99.5¢ | $1 | — |
4 accounts bet both sides equally · 2.32K shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.