Market · 15 of 54 outcomes
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 12 events · $64.4M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | Yes | 610,049 | 0.6¢ | $8.24K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| J-E-R0x612f…aa53 | Yes | 236,412 | 0.7¢ | $3.19K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 221,340 | 1.0¢ | $2.99K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| 0xcdlambjrrt0lk1en0js1mps0nipda1lyjfk0x52c2…0556 | Yes | 202,181 | 0.5¢ | $2.73K | New22 settled bets |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 166,449 | 0.8¢ | $2.25K | Losing−$1.33 per $100 · 16,271 bets |
| MymanIvan0xd47d…322b | Yes | 160,216 | 1.5¢ | $2.16K | — |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 115,000 | 0.8¢ | $1.55K | Losing−$2.28 per $100 · 6,744 bets |
| jeb20160x4638…d587 | Yes | 104,000 | 0.4¢ | $1.4K | — |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 94,404 | 1.0¢ | $1.27K | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| 0xf559…f462 | Yes | 88,147 | 1.6¢ | $1.19K | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 742 bets |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | Yes | 52,500 | 0.4¢ | $709 | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 967 bets |
| 0x16cb…2704 | Yes | 44,436 | 0.7¢ | $600 | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 7,120 bets |
| uprightuser0xd64e…5516 | Yes | 40,000 | 0.4¢ | $540 | — |
| konsomida0x60c6…247f | Yes | 38,500 | 1.2¢ | $520 | Positive+$3.21 per $100 · 750 bets |
| 0x6276…2dd9 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $405 | — |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $405 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,324 bets |
| CoffeeLover0xc1b3…501c | Yes | 28,701 | 0.7¢ | $387 | Positive+$6.49 per $100 · 2,902 bets |
| zzzx20x26a9…f6b7 | Yes | 28,466 | 1.3¢ | $384 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 935 bets |
| RobXK0x60b2…3cce | Yes | 25,000 | 0.7¢ | $338 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| mrtrump0xc3bf…e70f | Yes | 23,003 | 0.7¢ | $311 | Positive+$2.70 per $100 · 2,377 bets |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | Yes | 20,795 | 0.7¢ | $281 | New41 settled bets |
| NyetRisk0xc03c…50af | Yes | 20,600 | 0.8¢ | $278 | Positive+$22.95 per $100 · 234 bets |
| 0xb7de…b802 | Yes | 19,663 | 0.8¢ | $265 | Proven+$2.99 per $100 · 625 bets |
| aosdijf0x1963…9bfd | Yes | 17,871 | 1.1¢ | $241 | Positive+$11.72 per $100 · 577 bets |
| nhpx38txna05000x712f…b93b | Yes | 15,000 | 0.7¢ | $203 | Proven+$4.54 per $100 · 509 bets |
| expomax0x1e6a…9841 | Yes | 14,931 | 2.6¢ | $202 | — |
| 0x37a5…9da8 | No | 200 | 98.6¢ | $197 | — |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 14,550 | 0.7¢ | $196 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 14,444 | 0.7¢ | $195 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| ddalkkak0x16bd…e288 | Yes | 13,331 | 0.4¢ | $180 | Positive+$7.19 per $100 · 657 bets |
| Gucky-450xe613…540e | Yes | 10,930 | 0.4¢ | $148 | Positive+$9.88 per $100 · 2,562 bets |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A0xa3a4…5106 | Yes | 9,774 | 0.8¢ | $132 | Positive+$136.59 per $100 · 601 bets |
| elPolloLoco0xa2f1…2d22 | Yes | 8,700 | 0.0¢ | $117 | Positive+$1.78 per $100 · 4,814 bets |
| Insider20240x319d…2538 | Yes | 8,448 | 1.0¢ | $114 | New39 settled bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | Yes | 8,011 | 0.6¢ | $108 | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 4,082 bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 7,909 | 0.0¢ | $107 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| xcvcdcbhyyuu0x74c6…1ced | No | 102 | 98.4¢ | $100 | — |
| RaymondVan0x5677…2ce9 | Yes | 7,347 | 0.6¢ | $99 | Losing−$4.16 per $100 · 748 bets |
| mlferker0x3691…decd | Yes | 7,050 | 0.0¢ | $95 | — |
| 008765465465410xe560…e4fd | No | 94 | 98.8¢ | $93 | — |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | Yes | 6,800 | 0.5¢ | $92 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| KnureKnume0xcf6a…f9d0 | Yes | 6,515 | 0.9¢ | $88 | Proven+$5.98 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| Fermatter0x0d09…dd55 | Yes | 6,225 | 0.8¢ | $84 | — |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | Yes | 6,198 | 0.7¢ | $84 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| kqwjehrbqwemn0x92f6…bd97 | Yes | 6,000 | 0.7¢ | $81 | New65 settled bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 5,000 | 0.5¢ | $68 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| rousseauuu0x47c1…825f | Yes | 5,000 | 1.4¢ | $68 | — |
| 0x7298…fcfc | Yes | 5,000 | 0.4¢ | $68 | Positive+$7.47 per $100 · 908 bets |
| Retired-Davis0x8365…e9a6 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.0¢ | $68 | — |
| frrtyyy0x4be9…9608 | No | 66 | 98.6¢ | $65 | — |
| 1sk0x06e8…4675 | Yes | 4,226 | 0.0¢ | $57 | — |
| yyyiyyy0xbb3b…eefe | No | 56 | 98.3¢ | $55 | — |
| JuliusNakamoto0xdf5e…4168 | Yes | 4,000 | 0.4¢ | $54 | — |
| zhaoyuyou0x862b…a6a6 | No | 54 | 98.7¢ | $53 | — |
| youran0x594d…ceaf | No | 52 | 98.4¢ | $51 | — |
| failstober0x90ed…b5bc | Yes | 3,711 | 0.7¢ | $50 | Proven+$8.51 per $100 · 1,182 bets |
| matvey12667940x233a…5fd2 | No | 50 | 98.7¢ | $49 | — |
| Natusya0x594c…c680 | No | 50 | 98.8¢ | $49 | — |
| tolyanbazis0x63db…4401 | No | 50 | 98.7¢ | $49 | — |
| Spintowin010x9610…0ec9 | No | 50 | 98.7¢ | $49 | — |
| Djalaladinm0xda1b…d528 | No | 50 | 98.8¢ | $49 | — |
| datougou0x6c1f…4a2c | No | 12 | 98.5¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x4ded…f61c | No | 12 | 98.8¢ | $12 | — |
| sdgaafw0xcc45…ee2b | No | 12 | 98.9¢ | $12 | — |
| aixinjueluo0x0962…7669 | No | 11 | 98.5¢ | $11 | — |
| malaixiya0x4eb1…890e | No | 11 | 98.6¢ | $11 | — |
| youxiren0xd41d…be61 | No | 10 | 98.1¢ | $10 | — |
| chaye0x5733…8e8d | No | 10 | 98.3¢ | $10 | — |
| renshengrumeng0xaabf…c6aa | No | 10 | 98.3¢ | $10 | — |
| tiegongji0x1cf5…c7e3 | No | 10 | 98.7¢ | $10 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 469 | 0.8¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| jghubmn0x7f24…5402 | No | 5 | 98.6¢ | $5 | — |
| hfjhun0x1e09…ad51 | No | 5 | 98.7¢ | $5 | — |
| wrujfyhhg0x3f52…86ef | No | 5 | 98.7¢ | $5 | — |
| vjuhkmjhk0xea7b…0dd9 | No | 4 | 98.7¢ | $4 | — |
| azbgvf0x4843…2ed9 | No | 4 | 98.8¢ | $4 | — |
| kiloi0x48d7…c090 | No | 4 | 98.8¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xb8ac…708d | No | 2 | 98.3¢ | $2 | — |
| m3tuna0x4f9e…9aa0 | No | 2 | 98.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x1516…715d | No | 1 | 98.8¢ | $1 | — |
| omnibus-6c8b150x6c8b…645c | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 0 | 98.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 7.5K shares each side · Show
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