Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:44 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington0xdebb…eedb | No | 1,896 | 94.1¢ | $1.83K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 8,190 bets |
| Gdub0x0b64…49bd | No | 350 | 94.5¢ | $339 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| pkz0x49b6…170c | No | 205 | 96.7¢ | $198 | Proven+$5.06 per $100 · 1,472 bets |
| Faston0xa7fe…1f3e | No | 146 | 90.4¢ | $141 | — |
| 0xd0f8…6b50 | Yes | 1,700 | 6.0¢ | $57 | Proven+$11.40 per $100 · 266 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 33 | 90.0¢ | $32 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,020 bets |
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play