Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:17 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington0xdebb…eedb | No | 1,896 | 94.1¢ | $1.83K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 8,190 bets |
| Gdub0x0b64…49bd | No | 350 | 94.5¢ | $338 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 1,466 bets |
| pkz0x49b6…170c | No | 205 | 96.7¢ | $197 | Proven+$5.06 per $100 · 1,472 bets |
| Faston0xa7fe…1f3e | No | 146 | 90.4¢ | $140 | — |
| 0xd0f8…6b50 | Yes | 1,700 | 6.0¢ | $60 | Proven+$11.40 per $100 · 266 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 33 | 90.0¢ | $32 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,021 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 22 | 96.2¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| jzy05460x1e42…0520 | No | 10 | 91.3¢ | $10 | — |
| roblausmini0x5688…be5a | No | 10 | 93.2¢ | $10 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 249 | 3.5¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 184 | 4.4¢ | $7 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 179 | 4.4¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| from000xc1ab…68f2 | Yes | 100 | 10.1¢ | $4 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 92 | 6.1¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 82 | 2.3¢ | $3 | — |
| TeeCry0xdfe2…659d | Yes | 25 | 4.0¢ | $1 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 20 | 10.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| 0x86ca…16be | Yes | 20 | 2.5¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 11 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 5 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| 0xc2ca…04f5 | Yes | 4 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 5.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play