Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington0xdebb…eedb | No | 1,257 | 76.7¢ | $1.04K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 8,308 bets |
| dpnd0x5f21…b376 | No | 836 | 85.0¢ | $690 | Positive+$2.67 per $100 · 37,374 bets |
| AlphaGooo0xfc55…b21d | Yes | 640 | 16.5¢ | $112 | — |
| 0xd0f8…6b50 | Yes | 500 | 32.0¢ | $88 | Proven+$11.40 per $100 · 266 bets |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | No | 100 | 80.0¢ | $83 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 264 | 17.5¢ | $46 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 216 | 15.0¢ | $38 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 143 | 13.9¢ | $25 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 23 | 84.1¢ | $19 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,043 bets |
| from000xc1ab…68f2 | Yes | 100 | 13.1¢ | $18 | — |
| stakezilla0x9a19…74e8 | Yes | 67 | 6.2¢ | $12 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 61 | 17.7¢ | $11 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| wheatherman0xebf0…30e6 | Yes | 60 | 33.0¢ | $11 | — |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | No | 11 | 84.0¢ | $9 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 49 | 32.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 10 | 88.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| 0xcc43…dc2f | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $8 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 44 | 30.9¢ | $8 | — |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | 20 | 14.0¢ | $4 | — |
| wallet-account-test0xcaff…e3ad | Yes | 20 | 11.4¢ | $4 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 20 | 15.0¢ | $4 | — |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | No | 3 | 67.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| 0x08ef…e466 | Yes | 14 | 15.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 1,174 bets |
| Shekel0x3e56…35d5 | Yes | 10 | 16.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6bb9…f64a | Yes | 10 | 12.4¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xb2ea…81a1 | Yes | 6 | 16.5¢ | $1 | — |
| wildboar080xb260…9d59 | Yes | 4 | 25.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0fa2…05aa | Yes | 2 | 15.5¢ | $0 | Proven+$11.41 per $100 · 723 bets |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 0 | 85.0¢ | $0 | — |
| POB10xb431…82ec | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | — |
| brra0x9435…91fd | Yes | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play