Market · 9 of 14 outcomes
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 16:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 2,800 | 92.4¢ | $2.72K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 792 bets |
| libratus10x28b2…eb4f | No | 1,342 | 86.1¢ | $1.3K | — |
| onthewave0xc302…f388 | No | 279 | 90.1¢ | $271 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 201 bets |
| Midas140x6183…3834 | No | 200 | 88.2¢ | $194 | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 671 bets |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | No | 155 | 90.8¢ | $151 | — |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 100 | 91.0¢ | $97 | Proven+$10.79 per $100 · 1,662 bets |
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | 974 | 6.2¢ | $27 | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 4,118 bets |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 883 | 8.3¢ | $25 | Positive+$1.42 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| Oklmntrader0x6f67…102c | Yes | 796 | 14.0¢ | $22 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 540 | 4.8¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.95 per $100 · 8,491 bets |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | No | 12 | 84.5¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.31 per $100 · 539 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 11 | 84.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| 0xcdc0…ea74 | No | 11 | 92.3¢ | $11 | — |
| Ogre-Magi0x99f0…649f | No | 10 | 91.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Wojtek0x07d4…8991 | Yes | 343 | 2.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$6.05 per $100 · 2,630 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 281 | 7.2¢ | $8 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 243 | 5.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 4,816 bets |
| qcp110x2184…00df | No | 7 | 92.3¢ | $6 | Proven+$24.90 per $100 · 369 bets |
| 0x2e1c…db61 | Yes | 212 | 4.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.16 per $100 · 359 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 5 | 92.3¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,004 bets |
| aspenisabelmila0x738e…cc2c | No | 5 | 75.0¢ | $5 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 89 | 10.7¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 125,071 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 80 | 2.7¢ | $2 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 77 | 2.7¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.44 per $100 · 6,528 bets |
| sportkingzer0x0637…1e31 | No | 2 | 92.3¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 1,568 bets |
| longdated-poli0x167a…91d5 | Yes | 59 | 6.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.91 per $100 · 4,720 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 42 | 3.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| dropmeplease0x758b…0a1c | Yes | 40 | 6.8¢ | $1 | — |
| grungeee0xa6b3…c1ea | No | 1 | 90.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 20 | 3.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$33.83 per $100 · 567 bets |
| r5pet4g9p16n0x6364…1362 | Yes | 16 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| vc4ls7vdhvha0xd535…eff4 | Yes | 16 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x01ee…c603 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x020e…69c1 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1bcb…435c | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3826…2bc7 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5217…8201 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x628a…6d8f | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8242…0f3c | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb69b…890c | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc030…749e | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc9db…2ad3 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca6e…73e8 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd4e8…baac | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xea85…12dd | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xfb7f…fb67 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 0 | 97.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.04 per $100 · 5,169 bets |
| 0xe6e5…8e81 | Yes | 11 | 9.3¢ | $0 | — |
| oxb2a309A61ca9eD5DB26e9FDDa3a19fF4aE3a79e00xb2a3…79e0 | No | 0 | 89.4¢ | $0 | — |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | Yes | 5 | 2.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| 0xff12…cdc4 | Yes | 5 | 24.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.81 per $100 · 651 bets |
| 0x64b6…f6f6 | Yes | 4 | 14.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Ox81De0770551cA28Dc0Dc7fa148406D40BdfC20d40x81de…20d4 | Yes | 1 | 25.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.79 per $100 · 404 bets |
| smarterstrat0xe550…6f6e | Yes | 1 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | Yes | 1 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 89.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| 53asdad0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | 0 | 6.9¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
#1 AI Model Company · End of December 2026 · 2 events · $39.2K in play