Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLMarena0xbe2a…f745 | No | 386 | 66.9¢ | $261 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 208 | 76.0¢ | $141 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| ohalving0x7a12…f7fd | Yes | 300 | 37.3¢ | $98 | — |
| SPLPB0xdf0e…c02b | No | 114 | 76.0¢ | $77 | Break-even−$0.91 per $100 · 5,696 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 102 | 73.5¢ | $69 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 100 | 62.0¢ | $68 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 159 | 36.9¢ | $52 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 126 | 40.6¢ | $41 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| asd560xda65…e87e | Yes | 80 | 27.0¢ | $26 | — |
| asier040xf1be…fa77 | Yes | 61 | 54.6¢ | $20 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 47 | 27.8¢ | $15 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| riitmo0xbfb3…f890 | Yes | 45 | 26.4¢ | $15 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 20 | 78.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| BreaktheChain0x0182…810a | No | 20 | 77.0¢ | $14 | — |
| cacato0xd6df…d71d | No | 20 | 78.0¢ | $14 | — |
| stack80x1614…fdc0 | Yes | 40 | 62.0¢ | $13 | New44 settled bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 26 | 36.1¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 20 | 48.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| romeinzc0x1bce…24cd | Yes | 20 | 49.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x25b7…4689 | Yes | 20 | 60.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | Yes | 16 | 19.0¢ | $5 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 10 | 33.0¢ | $3 | — |
| palochka0x5fc6…9561 | No | 3 | 74.8¢ | $2 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 2 | 33.9¢ | $1 | — |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 1 | 33.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 0 | 41.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| BotFuvker0x9ded…b2ab | Yes | 0 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 32.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x053b…65e9 | No | 0 | 49.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Carabao0x24bf…b12e | No | 0 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6196…6208 | No | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
| pv-bot0x9fde…9a5c | No | 0 | 71.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play