Market · 3 of 14 outcomes
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 10:08 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 1,000 | 90.4¢ | $915 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 790 bets |
| ourdemocracy20xbdcb…e811 | No | 1,000 | 91.1¢ | $915 | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 569 bets |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | No | 725 | 85.6¢ | $663 | Proven+$8.70 per $100 · 4,101 bets |
| rpontici0x34af…bd55 | No | 675 | 87.6¢ | $618 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 1,164 bets |
| xcaiox0x7478…4003 | No | 440 | 86.7¢ | $402 | Proven+$7.09 per $100 · 278 bets |
| seal70x2b9d…adc0 | Yes | 2,945 | 11.5¢ | $250 | Proven+$9.63 per $100 · 898 bets |
| Rasalgethi0x8393…f0ae | No | 237 | 90.0¢ | $217 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 130 | 86.7¢ | $119 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| Cryonic0xf0f6…3836 | No | 112 | 89.4¢ | $103 | — |
| code.up0x2e2f…6884 | No | 108 | 91.8¢ | $99 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 230 bets |
| wasabeej0x8b02…b95f | No | 100 | 92.3¢ | $92 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 800 | 14.5¢ | $68 | Positive+$1.42 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| Elton1230x8673…4025 | No | 40 | 87.5¢ | $36 | — |
| 47Capital0xf29d…add3 | Yes | 349 | 10.4¢ | $30 | — |
| agentcal0x42b7…abff | No | 27 | 86.9¢ | $24 | Break-even+$0.64 per $100 · 4,615 bets |
| Xeny0x7b75…3fd1 | No | 22 | 91.0¢ | $20 | Proven+$3.11 per $100 · 2,684 bets |
| sand10x34d0…264e | No | 20 | 91.3¢ | $18 | — |
| mrmuller0x975d…01be | Yes | 150 | 9.5¢ | $13 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 85 | 13.1¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,761+ bets · updating |
| 0xbcba…223f | No | 6 | 87.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 61 | 9.4¢ | $5 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 60 | 9.3¢ | $5 | Losing−$5.95 per $100 · 8,491 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 42 | 8.8¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| MouriRan0x9102…8b85 | No | 3 | 86.5¢ | $3 | — |
| protonboy0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | 22 | 9.9¢ | $2 | — |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd0x5446…18f6 | No | 2 | 0.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$10.89 per $100 · 903 bets |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | Yes | 20 | 10.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 29,966+ bets · updating |
| sybaujustbet0xa2d1…d015 | Yes | 20 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| robszm0x04ba…bb60 | Yes | 15 | 11.4¢ | $1 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 15 | 19.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.98 per $100 · 4,402 bets |
| grungeee0xa6b3…c1ea | No | 1 | 89.4¢ | $1 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 11 | 10.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Richardbelmex0x1eae…96e6 | Yes | 10 | 10.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x7724…0492 | Yes | 9 | 0.0¢ | $1 | — |
| budulinek0xfb1e…d0fd | Yes | 9 | 11.4¢ | $1 | — |
| jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq0xb119…680b | Yes | 9 | 17.0¢ | $1 | — |
| deepsleep0x8394…8d66 | Yes | 5 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.26 per $100 · 368 bets |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 4 | 18.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,048 bets |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 4 | 13.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 4,816 bets |
| meow-1230x0739…aba8 | No | 0 | 87.4¢ | $0 | — |
| cryptosur0xbd9f…ef72 | Yes | 2 | 14.5¢ | $0 | — |
| banestow0x3080…337b | No | 0 | 78.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$20.74 per $100 · 495 bets |
| 53asdad0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | 1 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| nufonehudis670x6b44…be1e | No | 0 | 85.8¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 61.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
#1 AI Model Company · End of December 2026 · 2 events · $39.2K in play