Market · 6 of 22 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 191 | 94.6¢ | $188 | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| Kaiser18850x41d6…fca7 | Yes | 7,025 | 2.1¢ | $130 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 |
| No |
| 80 |
| 99.0¢ |
| $79 |
| Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,106 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 3,881 | 1.0¢ | $72 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 2,499 | 4.5¢ | $46 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 24 | 98.8¢ | $24 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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10 more outcomes in this event.
These 22 outcomes add up to 104.2¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.