Market · 5 of 22 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiser18850x41d6…fca7 | Yes | 7,025 | 2.1¢ | $218 | — |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 191 | 94.6¢ | $185 | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd |
| Yes |
| 3,881 |
| 1.0¢ |
| $120 |
| Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 80 | 99.0¢ | $78 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,129 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 2,499 | 4.5¢ | $77 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 1,224 | 3.3¢ | $38 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 1,113 | 1.5¢ | $35 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 1,034 | 1.2¢ | $32 | Positive+$13.28 per $100 · 8,633 bets |
| 0x1ff3…eb39 | Yes | 780 | 0.4¢ | $24 | Positive+$3.53 per $100 · 336 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 24 | 98.8¢ | $24 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 665 | 4.5¢ | $21 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 589 | 3.6¢ | $18 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 19 | 99.3¢ | $18 | — |
| rafb0x99fe…5705 | No | 18 | 99.1¢ | $18 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 390 | 4.5¢ | $12 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,877 bets |
| 86fgh0x2213…e5de | Yes | 390 | 1.1¢ | $12 | Positive+$2.40 per $100 · 296 bets |
| Casadepapel0x2ae2…8b8f | Yes | 370 | 1.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xd73d…51c5 | Yes | 332 | 1.5¢ | $10 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 84.9¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| lottonakamoto0x2884…d0c3 | No | 10 | 97.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 990 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 84.7¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| Doe3y3s0x3014…e3ff | Yes | 290 | 2.1¢ | $9 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 247 | 1.7¢ | $8 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 231 | 4.5¢ | $7 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,648 bets |
| sE3p00x5fd0…de6a | Yes | 201 | 1.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xccf5…f72f | Yes | 200 | 2.5¢ | $6 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 6 | 98.2¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 145 | 2.4¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x7d4d…96f3 | Yes | 142 | 0.6¢ | $4 | — |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 4 | 96.2¢ | $4 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 4 | 95.2¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| MrGrunbaum0xaf1f…9dc5 | Yes | 107 | 3.1¢ | $3 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 95 | 0.8¢ | $3 | — |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 77 | 2.6¢ | $2 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| siffy0xb7c7…b3bb | Yes | 71 | 1.4¢ | $2 | — |
| romanew-crypto0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | 64 | 5.5¢ | $2 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 38 | 4.5¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 98.7¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| 0x78b3…6dda | No | 1 | 99.6¢ | $1 | — |
| lazybigcat06240xad8f…d791 | Yes | 27 | 3.7¢ | $1 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 26 | 1.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| dsosods0x9868…907e | Yes | 21 | 2.4¢ | $1 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 20 | 1.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| 90.1300x7206…27a0 | Yes | 20 | 5.0¢ | $1 | — |
| jksdnf0xb6bf…c1c1 | Yes | 20 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 474 bets |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | Yes | 20 | 2.9¢ | $1 | — |
| iceman3130x7c32…ae78 | Yes | 20 | 5.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 18 | 4.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 17 | 4.5¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | 13 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Chococremeux0x08a6…f3cc | Yes | 13 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 0 | 97.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| Dushman0x49d5…2b39 | Yes | 12 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 10 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 5 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.61 per $100 · 87,448 bets |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | 4 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$15.49 per $100 · 4,509 bets |
| skyrocks0xa3cf…1a67 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd011…e928 | Yes | 1 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| nc3iceibvtvetvbt0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | 1 | 3.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$18.76 per $100 · 22,737 bets |
| 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | 1 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| mapleggg0x6bdc…6fcd | Yes | 0 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xadb5…e421 | Yes | 0 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 0 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 0 | 98.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| smallreceipt0x942e…be27 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| wfsxfwetrdsf0xc3fc…484a | No | 0 | 98.3¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 1.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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