Market · 8 of 22 outcomes
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 444 | 91.9¢ | $439 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| fluttyplump0x63c1…3173 | No | 104 | 96.2¢ | $103 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 80 | 98.2¢ | $79 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,106 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | $33 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| 0x1ff3…eb39 | Yes | 2,164 | 3.5¢ | $24 | Positive+$3.53 per $100 · 336 bets |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 1,684 | 3.9¢ | $19 | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
|
10 more outcomes in this event.
These 22 outcomes add up to 104.2¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.