Market · 9 of 22 outcomes
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 444 | 91.9¢ | $439 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| fluttyplump0x63c1…3173 | No | 104 | 96.2¢ | $103 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 80 | 98.2¢ | $79 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,129 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | $35 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| 0x1ff3…eb39 | Yes | 2,164 | 3.5¢ | $25 | Positive+$3.53 per $100 · 336 bets |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 1,684 | 3.9¢ | $19 | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 18 | 93.4¢ | $18 | — |
| knrad0x4d01…1645 | Yes | 1,546 | 11.9¢ | $18 | Positive+$2.87 per $100 · 1,296 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 17 | 86.4¢ | $17 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 1,224 | 3.3¢ | $14 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| 0xdcfe…b7d3 | Yes | 1,202 | 1.7¢ | $14 | — |
| CDReves0x3bf2…70a4 | Yes | 902 | 4.3¢ | $10 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 92.1¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 92.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 7,353 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 90.7¢ | $10 | — |
| zollar0x6261…7ce4 | Yes | 837 | 11.9¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 10 | 98.8¢ | $10 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 767 | 3.7¢ | $9 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 766 | 3.9¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| Cioppolacchio0x93f9…69b7 | Yes | 688 | 1.5¢ | $8 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 6 | 99.1¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 481 | 1.1¢ | $6 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 480 | 1.4¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 5 | 81.8¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 427 | 4.5¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 390 | 4.5¢ | $4 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,877 bets |
| ImNotBetting0x686d…1a68 | Yes | 351 | 2.3¢ | $4 | — |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 336 | 0.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| Equoia0x036d…7cd9 | Yes | 326 | 1.5¢ | $4 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 321 | 1.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 297 | 10.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 277 | 0.4¢ | $3 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 271 | 1.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$13.28 per $100 · 8,633 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 270 | 4.5¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,746 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 269 | 4.8¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Mob-Dzi0xb08d…3fee | Yes | 265 | 0.7¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x7e62…6cf7 | Yes | 250 | 4.0¢ | $3 | — |
| marucho760x8bc2…fae1 | Yes | 231 | 4.3¢ | $3 | — |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | Yes | 231 | 12.9¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,357 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 229 | 6.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 220 | 4.5¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,648 bets |
| 0xa5c2…33d2 | Yes | 214 | 14.0¢ | $2 | — |
| e2021dc0xf28d…b24b | Yes | 214 | 4.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x9c84…be53 | Yes | 200 | 0.7¢ | $2 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 124 | 1.5¢ | $1 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 1 | 90.7¢ | $1 | — |
| z0vulon0x9c2c…dc30 | Yes | 116 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Touge0x1c44…6c6b | Yes | 112 | 1.6¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 298 bets |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 100 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 95 | 1.7¢ | $1 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 91 | 1.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| kaitemo0x7b0f…145c | Yes | 90 | 1.3¢ | $1 | — |
| LevsIL0x207a…f039 | Yes | 69 | 2.9¢ | $1 | — |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 60 | 4.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.02 per $100 · 11,252 bets |
| DS1310x1551…c10c | Yes | 50 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 1f2da719e0b226d9d91664b0cfe06590x4385…f4b1 | Yes | 50 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 47 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| johngarn0x8c9a…125a | Yes | 42 | 11.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 41 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Casadepapel0x2ae2…8b8f | Yes | 36 | 4.9¢ | $0 | — |
| MrGrunbaum0xaf1f…9dc5 | Yes | 36 | 16.7¢ | $0 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 30 | 3.6¢ | $0 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| skyrocks0xa3cf…1a67 | No | 0 | 96.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 96.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| smallreceipt0x942e…be27 | No | 0 | 96.1¢ | $0 | — |
| luisotavio03120xcc36…d35d | No | 0 | 94.1¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.