Market · 1 of 43 outcomes
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 06:51 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 15 events · $62.7M in play
Exactly one of this event's 43 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 43 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98better0xa8a9…bb81 | Yes | 546,733 | 38.7¢ | $267K | New2 settled bets |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 331,698 | 48.6¢ | $162K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| hose0xcc29…7774 | Yes | 151,121 | 40.5¢ | $73.7K | Proven+$3.21 per $100 · 274 bets |
| GCottrell930x94a4…6356 | Yes | 146,779 | 48.7¢ | $71.6K | New41 settled bets |
| Pog0xe6ca…b27a | Yes | 122,601 | 43.7¢ | $59.8K | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 382 bets |
| 0xcf19…6402 | Yes | 114,005 | 36.2¢ | $55.6K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 457 bets |
| Cadabra0xc65e…1502 | Yes | 110,694 | 54.4¢ | $54K | New82 settled bets |
| Anon55660x5a56…adab | Yes | 95,507 | 42.2¢ | $46.6K | Losing−$5.01 per $100 · 315 bets |
| Inhabit0x2b86…2dc8 | Yes | 76,208 | 33.3¢ | $37.2K | New2 settled bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | Yes | 65,278 | 37.4¢ | $31.9K | Proven+$8.15 per $100 · 530 bets |
| pizzabillgates0xa771…162d | Yes | 62,137 | 39.1¢ | $30.3K | New15 settled bets |
| chungguskhan0x7744…999e | Yes | 59,960 | 38.1¢ | $29.3K | Positive+$2.42 per $100 · 584 bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 53,943 | 38.4¢ | $26.3K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | Yes | 42,692 | 44.5¢ | $20.8K | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 260 bets |
| someone20260xa7ce…6398 | Yes | 42,475 | 41.5¢ | $20.7K | New18 settled bets |
| escapingthemaze0x9fdf…8029 | Yes | 40,000 | 59.0¢ | $19.5K | New10 settled bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 39,445 | 44.7¢ | $19.2K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,423 bets |
| dresden770x437c…dfa4 | Yes | 36,760 | 54.4¢ | $17.9K | New16 settled bets |
| 0xb826…635a | Yes | 24,161 | 42.1¢ | $11.8K | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 137 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 20,398 | 0.7¢ | $9.95K | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| failstober0x90ed…b5bc | Yes | 19,039 | 39.6¢ | $9.29K | Proven+$8.51 per $100 · 1,184 bets |
| Funfzig0x5e9c…cd75 | Yes | 16,037 | 50.1¢ | $7.83K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 1,061 bets |
| 0x21a2…5f83 | No | 12,903 | 55.1¢ | $6.61K | New47 settled bets |
| baran-ludoman0xc0bf…2032 | No | 11,130 | 58.7¢ | $5.7K | Proven+$11.48 per $100 · 198 bets |
| 0x9f0a…5d37 | Yes | 10,589 | 41.9¢ | $5.17K | New0 settled bets |
| Polybius0x59a7…9f30 | No | 10,000 | 67.4¢ | $5.12K | Break-even−$0.45 per $100 · 184 bets |
| 0x5039…946d | No | 10,000 | 56.7¢ | $5.12K | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 587 bets |
| konsomida0x60c6…247f | No | 9,584 | 50.9¢ | $4.91K | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 767 bets |
| 0x8605…aa83 | No | 5,144 | 49.8¢ | $2.63K | New4 settled bets |