Market · 3 of 53 outcomes
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 13 events · $63.6M in play
Exactly one of this event's 53 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 41 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gatorr0x93ab…9723 | Yes | 386,409 | 25.3¢ | $59.7K | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 937 bets |
| 0x6e82…752c | No | 60,520 | 65.5¢ | $51.2K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Hugewinner0xc8ec…e8f1 | Yes | 323,061 | 18.6¢ | $49.9K | Proven+$31.03 per $100 · 380 bets |
| fuc.your.mother0x76cf…9452 | Yes | 206,746 | 24.8¢ | $31.9K | Break-even−$0.86 per $100 · 138 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | Yes | 180,097 | 33.0¢ | $27.8K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| Ket2180x7d8c…0b5c | Yes | 137,272 | 29.4¢ | $21.2K | New11 settled bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | Yes | 105,000 | 30.9¢ | $16.2K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| 0x3d84…086b | Yes | 96,727 | 26.5¢ | $14.9K | New26 settled bets |
| Cadabra0xc65e…1502 | Yes | 84,052 | 36.5¢ | $13K | New82 settled bets |
| charliealmanack0xa3a3…c2f9 | Yes | 68,988 | 24.1¢ | $10.7K | Proven+$10.37 per $100 · 180 bets |
| mattheusmaximus0x3959…c73d | Yes | 64,491 | 26.9¢ | $9.96K | New85 settled bets |
| Monopoly_Money0x7ea7…79ac | Yes | 63,734 | 19.6¢ | $9.85K | Losing−$4.86 per $100 · 289 bets |
| 0x74fa…7ff1 | Yes | 60,000 | 34.0¢ | $9.27K | New15 settled bets |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 59,329 | 32.5¢ | $9.17K | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,296 bets |
| TaxIsTheft0xa7b5…fa78 | Yes | 44,905 | 22.0¢ | $6.94K | Losing−$1.33 per $100 · 355 bets |
| Polybius0x59a7…9f30 | Yes | 40,093 | 27.8¢ | $6.19K | Break-even−$0.45 per $100 · 184 bets |
| JetXBTcn0xa206…2cad | Yes | 36,709 | 27.2¢ | $5.67K | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 155 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 31,871 | 25.2¢ | $4.92K | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,305 bets |
| 0xcb58…0160 | Yes | 31,574 | 33.5¢ | $4.88K | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 113 bets |
| fitmk0x539d…1e69 | Yes | 29,438 | 29.6¢ | $4.55K | New37 settled bets |
| brucemsx0x4025…de4e | Yes | 27,682 | 36.1¢ | $4.28K | New17 settled bets |
| failstober0x90ed…b5bc | Yes | 26,892 | 43.3¢ | $4.15K | Proven+$8.51 per $100 · 1,182 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 4,767 | 80.3¢ | $4.03K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| 19191190x34b7…963a | Yes | 25,275 | 25.1¢ | $3.9K | New13 settled bets |
| SteamRollerPennies0x3275…2e5a | No | 3,500 | 70.0¢ | $2.96K | New51 settled bets |
| StanleyIpkiss0x1129…8a36 | Yes | 18,995 | 34.2¢ | $2.93K | New19 settled bets |
| 0xf80e…2af8 | No | 3,408 | 82.4¢ | $2.88K | Proven+$16.72 per $100 · 124 bets |
| 0xa2e1…621f | No | 3,396 | 69.0¢ | $2.87K | New0 settled bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | No | 3,333 | 73.9¢ | $2.82K | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 4,082 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 17,944 | 11.9¢ | $2.77K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| 0xc00d…6cd3 | Yes | 16,999 | 17.6¢ | $2.63K | New13 settled bets |
| SUPERNOVA-0x3269…1e7c | Yes | 16,875 | 17.5¢ | $2.61K | New94 settled bets |
| 0x50ff…e0b8 | Yes | 16,653 | 27.8¢ | $2.57K | New71 settled bets |
| Pog0xe6ca…b27a | Yes | 16,276 | 15.5¢ | $2.51K | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 382 bets |
| 0xca8a…cc81 | Yes | 15,726 | 25.4¢ | $2.43K | New8 settled bets |
| J-E-R0x612f…aa53 | Yes | 15,509 | 14.2¢ | $2.4K | Proven+$12.99 per $100 · 623 bets |
| limmmmmm0x6c4c…f249 | No | 2,538 | 72.6¢ | $2.15K | New37 settled bets |
| LBZone0xd81f…6b75 | No | 2,122 | 76.8¢ | $1.79K | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 23,245 bets |
| bulahcor0x602b…8461 | No | 2,086 | 72.6¢ | $1.76K | New5 settled bets |
41 accounts bet both sides equally · 3.91M shares each side · Show
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