Market · 30 of 54 outcomes
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 12 events · $64.4M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 7 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| keinanung0xd720…5eb8 | No | 1,510 | 99.0¢ | $1.51K | New0 settled bets |
| gibbonomics0x6725…4038 | No | 1,257 | 99.3¢ | $1.25K | New |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| JustCrazy0xc21e…0215 | Yes | 712,392 | 0.1¢ | $1.07K | Positive+$6.92 per $100 · 1,770 bets |
| koshbaby0x9f80…ea2d | No | 1,061 | 99.0¢ | $1.06K | Proven+$2.71 per $100 · 197 bets |
| operationcastle0xd3a6…fd55 | No | 1,060 | 98.3¢ | $1.06K | Proven+$16.97 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| vigfood4040xd57b…daf2 | No | 1,046 | 99.9¢ | $1.04K | New20 settled bets |
| boba2280xcd33…2cb1 | No | 570 | 99.3¢ | $569 | — |
| aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa10x0509…6e98 | Yes | 363,781 | 1.0¢ | $546 | Losing−$3.20 per $100 · 2,287 bets |
| MarkKelly0xe4d7…0a84 | No | 510 | 99.3¢ | $509 | — |
| santashrek810x3fbc…30a4 | Yes | 200,001 | 0.5¢ | $300 | Positive+$6.78 per $100 · 177 bets |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 189,413 | 0.9¢ | $284 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| ghygygy0xc1f9…a8ec | No | 201 | 99.4¢ | $201 | — |
| 0xcdlambjrrt0lk1en0js1mps0nipda1lyjfk0x52c2…0556 | Yes | 112,000 | 0.6¢ | $168 | New22 settled bets |
| Hosei0x1eca…3a06 | No | 160 | 97.1¢ | $160 | — |
| Q96s3kwozynxpau0x2663…ed1f | Yes | 104,720 | 0.6¢ | $157 | Positive+$11.43 per $100 · 511 bets |
| EIon20280xb4b1…7770 | Yes | 95,502 | 2.7¢ | $143 | Losing−$5.68 per $100 · 116 bets |
| alihanyer0x1615…8f2b | Yes | 89,997 | 0.9¢ | $135 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,132 bets |
| 6gfgfgd4r0x7546…dbb0 | No | 132 | 99.1¢ | $132 | — |
| 0xdf4d…ae25 | No | 130 | 98.7¢ | $130 | — |
| liussshui0xcfe6…491a | No | 129 | 98.8¢ | $129 | — |
| 0x1600…76b0 | No | 127 | 98.7¢ | $127 | — |
| 0xd48c…58be | No | 125 | 98.7¢ | $125 | — |
| 0x1933…ad49 | No | 123 | 98.7¢ | $123 | — |
| 0x4b59…fe76 | No | 122 | 98.7¢ | $122 | — |
| dssfd40x3799…0c28 | No | 121 | 99.1¢ | $121 | — |
| 0x6643…e9dd | No | 120 | 98.7¢ | $120 | — |
| GGGT60x0c7c…2bd4 | No | 119 | 98.9¢ | $119 | — |
| zjb3330x89c9…76d4 | No | 118 | 98.7¢ | $118 | — |
| 0x1600…bf70 | No | 116 | 98.7¢ | $116 | — |
| 0x11bc…61d7 | No | 115 | 98.7¢ | $115 | — |
| cschroeder0x38ce…6ac9 | No | 114 | 99.4¢ | $114 | — |
| 0xa3fe…72d2 | No | 113 | 98.7¢ | $113 | — |
| 0xda6c…afa9 | No | 111 | 98.7¢ | $111 | — |
| donahuejimmy0x7e87…8a80 | No | 110 | 99.0¢ | $110 | — |
| 0x6cfa…06e7 | No | 109 | 98.7¢ | $109 | — |
| 0xe1e9…9409 | No | 107 | 98.7¢ | $107 | — |
| ZJB5550xe441…b286 | No | 104 | 98.7¢ | $104 | — |
| lbtt80x2548…54ad | No | 103 | 99.1¢ | $103 | — |
| ggill0x0714…c23b | No | 102 | 99.4¢ | $102 | — |
| zyz3330x2d6a…2cd3 | No | 102 | 98.7¢ | $102 | — |
| 0x8f7b…55ce | Yes | 67,325 | 1.1¢ | $101 | Losing−$6.59 per $100 · 1,018 bets |
| ppsyt0x0c2b…ba36 | No | 100 | 99.1¢ | $100 | — |
| 0x7731…b9ae | No | 100 | 98.7¢ | $100 | — |
| Mindfu0x7ecb…9def | No | 100 | 99.1¢ | $100 | — |
| Oliveg0xbf34…5a37 | No | 100 | 99.1¢ | $100 | — |
| iuyrh760xd531…d36c | No | 100 | 99.1¢ | $100 | — |
| chainnn0xeb46…9ef8 | No | 100 | 99.0¢ | $100 | — |
| monicaatkinson0xf568…0464 | No | 94 | 99.4¢ | $94 | — |
| alihan0xc315…8e55 | Yes | 60,998 | 0.9¢ | $91 | New45 settled bets |
| whitecory0x4c03…1dfd | No | 90 | 99.4¢ | $90 | — |
| ssd8t0xbf9e…7272 | No | 90 | 99.1¢ | $90 | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 57,408 | 0.8¢ | $86 | Losing−$1.32 per $100 · 16,257 bets |
| judithrivers0x7e3b…1bbc | No | 86 | 99.9¢ | $86 | — |
| XC45430xa8e7…34e8 | No | 82 | 99.1¢ | $82 | — |
| musaftw0x4775…5fdb | Yes | 30,100 | 0.2¢ | $45 | — |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $45 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,324 bets |
| etar0x0c15…944d | Yes | 26,152 | 0.9¢ | $39 | — |
| vitordeng3580xbd7e…875d | Yes | 25,000 | 0.3¢ | $38 | — |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | Yes | 20,795 | 0.7¢ | $31 | New41 settled bets |
| rangkhosh0xc97a…838e | Yes | 20,086 | 1.0¢ | $30 | — |
| fibvit0x6ebf…49e5 | Yes | 20,000 | 0.8¢ | $30 | — |
| Siaja7770x11f2…0158 | Yes | 18,182 | 1.1¢ | $27 | — |
| Asperatus0x36a7…1aea | Yes | 15,000 | 0.8¢ | $23 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 735 bets |
| pingguopanke520xfe9a…75c9 | Yes | 15,000 | 0.3¢ | $23 | — |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 14,444 | 0.7¢ | $22 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| ddalkkak0x16bd…e288 | Yes | 13,331 | 0.4¢ | $20 | Positive+$7.19 per $100 · 657 bets |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 11,000 | 0.8¢ | $17 | Positive+$12.16 per $100 · 3,927 bets |
| iNo0xcf32…e517 | Yes | 10,945 | 1.1¢ | $16 | — |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.8¢ | $15 | Losing−$2.28 per $100 · 6,744 bets |
| Nkein0xaa62…9746 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.2¢ | $15 | — |
| goidavladisvovna0xc13c…c560 | Yes | 10,000 | 1.1¢ | $15 | — |
| memek0xc34e…40fc | Yes | 10,000 | 1.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A0xa3a4…5106 | Yes | 9,880 | 0.8¢ | $15 | Positive+$136.59 per $100 · 601 bets |
| euphoricanimal0x5cdd…66ec | Yes | 9,250 | 1.6¢ | $14 | — |
| Convex790x4d86…1cb2 | Yes | 8,333 | 0.2¢ | $12 | Positive+$2.41 per $100 · 1,380 bets |
| f2kus0xdcf8…93c6 | Yes | 7,777 | 0.7¢ | $12 | — |
| Wojtek0x07d4…8991 | Yes | 7,262 | 0.8¢ | $11 | Proven+$6.05 per $100 · 2,630 bets |
| BulkaeD0x0b18…e6bc | Yes | 7,041 | 0.7¢ | $11 | — |
| petanimal0xfd69…a2e1 | Yes | 7,000 | 0.4¢ | $11 | Positive+$10.73 per $100 · 3,634 bets |
| pertain990xa401…64cc | Yes | 6,342 | 2.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x5e2c…c32f | Yes | 6,250 | 0.8¢ | $9 | — |
| glavpe0xc747…becf | Yes | 6,000 | 0.3¢ | $9 | — |
| fillo0x1b5a…d21d | Yes | 5,736 | 1.7¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 5,438 | 0.6¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| Donkov0xbc54…680f | Yes | 5,000 | 0.9¢ | $8 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| CHENDABAO0x4812…d2d6 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $8 | — |
| VSTRGRD0xa254…fd7b | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $8 | — |
| Trrrond0xa530…d4fc | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $8 | — |
| neymar10xf93f…f94b | Yes | 5,000 | 1.2¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.32 per $100 · 1,124 bets |
| simplystupid1880x682c…17ae | Yes | 4,915 | 0.9¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,501 bets |
7 accounts bet both sides equally · 76.4K shares each side · Show
|