Market · 4 of 6 outcomes
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 05:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | No | 931 | 76.5¢ | $759 | — |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | No | 654 | 77.9¢ | $533 | Proven+$14.81 per $100 · 3,730 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,103 | 18.5¢ | $204 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,135 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 559 | 24.0¢ | $103 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 40 | 80.5¢ | $33 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | No | 38 | 79.7¢ | $31 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 30 | 85.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | No | 19 | 87.0¢ | $16 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 15 | 85.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 14 | 85.7¢ | $11 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,686+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 10 | 92.0¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 36 | 25.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$3.64 per $100 · 14,872 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 18.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 20 | 26.0¢ | $4 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | No | 4 | 80.3¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3f36…7a58 | No | 4 | 82.6¢ | $3 | — |
| Lordofebola0x1aac…1df6 | Yes | 10 | 10.4¢ | $2 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 6 | 12.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | Yes | 5 | 28.1¢ | $1 | — |
| richyee0xcdf5…e344 | No | 1 | 93.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 9.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xc5da…5f86 | No | 0 | 89.4¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 105 events · $6.09M in play