Market · 9 of 10 outcomes
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:26 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | No | 17,000 | 87.6¢ | $16.6K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | No | 5,068 | 84.4¢ | $4.94K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | No | 4,132 | 92.6¢ | $4.02K | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,008 bets |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | No | 3,274 | 95.7¢ | $3.19K | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| 0x9f57…4f12 | No | 2,590 | 92.3¢ | $2.52K | — |
| spongebobs0x821f…f9c3 | No | 1,013 | 89.2¢ | $987 | New58 settled bets |
| elmcap20xed10…d2e5 | No | 1,002 | 80.0¢ | $976 | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,129 bets |
| HEBI550xd4cb…ecb7 | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $974 | — |
| ShrimpsOnThePan0x7463…59b3 | No | 771 | 90.4¢ | $751 | New88 settled bets |
| Gausslois0xb6b4…6709 | No | 632 | 81.9¢ | $616 | — |
| Jesetrading0xce60…6705 | No | 460 | 85.8¢ | $448 | — |
| jyPoz0x6cf9…cffd | No | 417 | 86.0¢ | $407 | Proven+$2.78 per $100 · 195 bets |
| OnionSoupToday0xf905…bee8 | No | 416 | 90.4¢ | $405 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 324 | 95.8¢ | $316 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| paula0xa0xed86…6ee1 | Yes | 7,211 | 12.3¢ | $187 | New94 settled bets |
| 0x3764…c5eb | Yes | 6,697 | 6.9¢ | $174 | Proven+$7.49 per $100 · 1,189 bets |
| GangnamStyle990x7088…f1eb | No | 152 | 90.4¢ | $148 | New49 settled bets |
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | No | 136 | 95.5¢ | $132 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| End1230x8df7…36c4 | No | 126 | 88.0¢ | $123 | Losing−$3.41 per $100 · 650 bets |
| srmiiie0xbca5…8727 | Yes | 4,581 | 7.6¢ | $119 | Losing−$55.78 per $100 · 173 bets |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | No | 100 | 87.8¢ | $97 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 755 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 100 | 83.6¢ | $97 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Awestin.eth0xb779…ab22 | No | 88 | 82.0¢ | $85 | — |
| Bull920x527f…69a3 | Yes | 3,078 | 9.3¢ | $80 | New61 settled bets |
| miya20160xbecd…f54e | No | 75 | 81.3¢ | $73 | Proven+$2.17 per $100 · 2,286 bets |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | Yes | 2,728 | 8.9¢ | $71 | Proven+$20.88 per $100 · 540 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | No | 72 | 76.8¢ | $70 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| randomgambla0xec2c…4676 | Yes | 2,550 | 13.1¢ | $66 | New26 settled bets |
| slavik13370xe18d…e1f5 | No | 55 | 96.4¢ | $53 | — |
| wilker670x34cb…df96 | No | 54 | 97.1¢ | $52 | New22 settled bets |
| cripes30x8454…331a | Yes | 1,977 | 17.0¢ | $51 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 2,770 bets |
| areola0xafae…4b33 | No | 50 | 96.1¢ | $49 | — |
| chuhan13370x99a1…40bd | No | 50 | 97.1¢ | $49 | — |
| boris19750xcb9c…e49e | No | 48 | 96.6¢ | $47 | — |
| valera3650xab04…7ecd | No | 47 | 96.7¢ | $46 | — |
| Pavelr0xdd51…6b88 | No | 45 | 89.9¢ | $44 | — |
| mauricise0x8092…da08 | No | 39 | 97.1¢ | $38 | New20 settled bets |
| f3ita0xe788…736b | No | 38 | 85.5¢ | $37 | Losing−$9.37 per $100 · 180 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 37 | 96.3¢ | $36 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| Surendipity-Guesser0x3d4d…5ac8 | No | 33 | 91.3¢ | $32 | Losing−$13.35 per $100 · 155 bets |
| Investnow0x97f3…0eba | Yes | 1,221 | 8.5¢ | $32 | — |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 1,000 | 7.3¢ | $26 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 990 | 6.2¢ | $26 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,847 bets |
| tiger120x0979…bae6 | Yes | 978 | 9.3¢ | $25 | New8 settled bets |
| 0x7cf7…3c63 | No | 24 | 83.8¢ | $23 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 11,459 bets |
| nickadamus0xca37…a2ae | Yes | 716 | 2.9¢ | $19 | — |
| the-contrarian0xedc6…20fc | Yes | 698 | 11.0¢ | $18 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 582 | 3.1¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| PapiTrump0x7dce…981e | No | 15 | 97.1¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.82 per $100 · 640 bets |
| 0x0456…c88a | No | 15 | 92.3¢ | $15 | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| SpyVsSpy0x1137…4ed5 | Yes | 500 | 10.4¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 1,490 bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 400 | 8.3¢ | $10 | Proven+$13.24 per $100 · 3,540 bets |
| 0xc4a7…898a | No | 9 | 80.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 273 | 2.8¢ | $7 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 7 | 81.6¢ | $7 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| MiladyMilady0xbedd…68b7 | Yes | 250 | 12.4¢ | $7 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 250 | 3.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| ryguyy0x6ab7…d0a4 | No | 7 | 79.7¢ | $6 | New4 settled bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 241 | 2.7¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,035 bets |
| 0x9883…1d31 | No | 6 | 82.6¢ | $6 | — |
| Pineseeker0x55ea…8eb2 | Yes | 228 | 11.4¢ | $6 | New3 settled bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 226 | 15.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| egca6of5xfya0xe7a3…a652 | No | 6 | 84.4¢ | $6 | — |
| breeze550x52ce…1da9 | Yes | 222 | 9.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$9.36 per $100 · 266 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 212 | 20.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,285 bets |
| 0xef65…7249 | No | 5 | 92.3¢ | $5 | — |
| Flaner0x585b…753f | Yes | 200 | 17.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$4.08 per $100 · 927 bets |
| postmeta0x2987…8512 | No | 5 | 97.8¢ | $5 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 792 bets |
| WaffleSignal0x7507…309f | No | 5 | 89.4¢ | $5 | New28 settled bets |
| asdf1asdf1110xac71…f74c | No | 5 | 84.0¢ | $5 | — |
| LFG20240x22c7…9bb4 | Yes | 187 | 7.9¢ | $5 | New94 settled bets |
| cc4160x8242…cb6e | Yes | 160 | 11.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$60.62 per $100 · 199 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 154 | 3.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.58 per $100 · 123,998 bets |
| stefangod0x101e…d4da | No | 3 | 85.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.08 per $100 · 1,424 bets |
| teestar0xea6f…a2bc | Yes | 116 | 12.4¢ | $3 | — |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| Po1yBot-EQARi6RxED0x6491…6ed2 | No | 3 | 84.0¢ | $3 | New43 settled bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 98 | 4.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| 0xb7f0…6920 | No | 2 | 83.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xff09…25ab | No | 2 | 86.7¢ | $2 | — |
| lyoo12100x1abe…f19f | Yes | 71 | 6.2¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.26 per $100 · 727 bets |
| Kerbalz0xfab6…e94c | Yes | 64 | 11.4¢ | $2 | — |
| LearningPizza0x4da4…5535 | Yes | 62 | 9.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.24 per $100 · 301 bets |
| 0x84fd…2f81 | Yes | 58 | 16.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 52 | 2.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 50 | 10.2¢ | $1 | — |
| dr1v3r0x9819…e6f4 | Yes | 40 | 12.8¢ | $1 | — |
| taerv5340x30f9…fbfc | Yes | 40 | 4.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$32.96 per $100 · 2,276 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 37 | 3.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0x1e6c…8e6d | Yes | 36 | 14.5¢ | $1 | New3 settled bets |
| 0x4bd5…1cab | Yes | 34 | 3.0¢ | $1 | New89 settled bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 2.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0xc9a90290332fa3ea9885f1e2ce466e6baf0c2930xb8a9…2948 | Yes | 28 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6706…2341 | Yes | 21 | 9.3¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 988 bets |
| McProducer0x7c37…5b82 | Yes | 18 | 11.4¢ | $0 | New58 settled bets |
| cd30gfu530p00xfd5a…aa7a | Yes | 15 | 9.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,176 bets |
| joemams0x44d1…6e56 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | New49 settled bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 14 | 9.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| tYdfqhA0x2f79…f250 | Yes | 13 | 16.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.24 per $100 · 125 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.06M in play