Market · 9 of 10 outcomes
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:01 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ladida330xf2e9…cf93 | No | 5,000 | 85.5¢ | $4.89K | — |
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No | 3,044 | 96.9¢ | $2.98K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 722 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 2,451 | 96.9¢ | $2.4K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| imjustalarp0x57e4…835e | No | 1,771 | 90.3¢ | $1.73K | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 477 bets |
| 0x9eb8…3194 | No | 1,000 | 85.5¢ | $979 | — |
| mavx0x4a73…9b01 | No | 500 | 85.5¢ | $489 | — |
| K1ngN0rth0x04ec…580f | No | 458 | 83.8¢ | $448 | Proven+$3.32 per $100 · 957 bets |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | No | 433 | 91.2¢ | $424 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,008 bets |
| Ondra0x849c…4009 | Yes | 14,243 | 3.9¢ | $306 | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 5,303 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 285 | 98.0¢ | $279 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,500 bets |
| xcover0x762d…bebe | No | 200 | 85.5¢ | $196 | — |
| 0x7577…8fb9 | Yes | 7,393 | 5.8¢ | $159 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 210 bets |
| maladec0x6ab3…fc3b | Yes | 7,003 | 4.3¢ | $151 | — |
| LilTimmyJimmy0x7268…c903 | Yes | 5,666 | 2.5¢ | $122 | New75 settled bets |
| 0x46a1…2736 | No | 110 | 81.0¢ | $108 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 711 bets |
| Yomba0xd3fb…57e5 | No | 100 | 85.5¢ | $98 | Proven+$3.03 per $100 · 860 bets |
| Yubingbing0xf914…19f6 | Yes | 4,080 | 3.7¢ | $88 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 90 | 97.0¢ | $88 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 3,333 | 10.0¢ | $72 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 3,269 | 3.1¢ | $70 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,980 bets |
| PYEQUANT0x95a8…1c69 | No | 52 | 95.9¢ | $51 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | No | 50 | 98.7¢ | $49 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| svdv10xfd28…94d4 | Yes | 2,188 | 2.4¢ | $47 | — |
| 0x3764…c5eb | Yes | 1,861 | 16.5¢ | $40 | Proven+$7.49 per $100 · 1,189 bets |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | No | 40 | 97.6¢ | $39 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 755 bets |
| zhou6660x9a38…260a | Yes | 1,471 | 2.3¢ | $32 | — |
| 0x9996…bda1 | Yes | 1,375 | 4.2¢ | $30 | — |
| Morras0x7ab8…65db | No | 30 | 78.0¢ | $29 | — |
| rhinogiraffe0x7aed…df39 | No | 28 | 93.5¢ | $27 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 4,780 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 1,200 | 1.2¢ | $26 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 25 | 97.7¢ | $24 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 1,023 | 7.4¢ | $22 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| PrimePenguin0x933c…a8c6 | No | 20 | 95.1¢ | $20 | — |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | Yes | 905 | 3.0¢ | $19 | Proven+$20.88 per $100 · 540 bets |
| luoyann0xa953…db4b | No | 19 | 99.6¢ | $18 | — |
| 3874110074156118140922178973870xa49b…7054 | Yes | 827 | 6.9¢ | $18 | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 43,926 bets |
| bai12810x6883…bd1e | Yes | 801 | 3.6¢ | $17 | — |
| 0xc9c8…44fb | Yes | 701 | 2.4¢ | $15 | Losing−$2.18 per $100 · 1,108 bets |
| gldx0xf930…cfbd | Yes | 543 | 0.8¢ | $12 | — |
| buriram0x2c15…2cae | Yes | 500 | 4.3¢ | $11 | — |
| BBBBBB8860xd2ca…fc0d | Yes | 489 | 3.3¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 10 | 98.1¢ | $10 | — |
| Ramonstone0x374e…0a84 | Yes | 465 | 4.5¢ | $10 | New32 settled bets |
| Jatayuvengeancee0xfd48…37b8 | No | 10 | 99.3¢ | $10 | — |
| sd4f5g67h8j90x31a4…dd86 | No | 10 | 84.5¢ | $10 | — |
| peedtftg0xabf2…83ed | No | 10 | 95.1¢ | $10 | — |
| DREAMBIG.0x9e8e…8db8 | No | 9 | 89.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$18.01 per $100 · 5,706 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 304 | 3.1¢ | $7 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 300 | 0.6¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | 279 | 1.5¢ | $6 | — |
| moonrise-clump0x48c4…19e5 | No | 6 | 82.6¢ | $6 | — |
| hildegardacre0x6e65…f33d | No | 6 | 97.7¢ | $6 | — |
| pasut0xfcd9…aebd | No | 6 | 97.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x28b9…8056 | No | 5 | 97.7¢ | $5 | — |
| WorkingIsBad0xc58b…ff58 | Yes | 224 | 3.2¢ | $5 | — |
| Olka0x5849…a99e | Yes | 219 | 0.3¢ | $5 | Positive+$16.51 per $100 · 3,079 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 218 | 10.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| 0x1f85…7b02 | Yes | 214 | 10.0¢ | $5 | — |
| sphinx960xe7ae…17be | Yes | 210 | 6.2¢ | $5 | — |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 202 | 9.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 200 | 9.5¢ | $4 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| ammarb0x5efe…5f55 | Yes | 200 | 15.5¢ | $4 | New44 settled bets |
| crypto-futur30x31cc…ea6b | No | 4 | 96.2¢ | $4 | New47 settled bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 191 | 10.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,306 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 4 | 78.5¢ | $4 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| balthazar.net0x6007…1788 | Yes | 167 | 15.5¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x3488…4a94 | Yes | 147 | 17.6¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x69d7…c25c | Yes | 125 | 0.8¢ | $3 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 115 | 2.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| 0x71690x1d44…c1e8 | Yes | 100 | 0.4¢ | $2 | New14 settled bets |
| Atom.ipshi0x484a…754a | Yes | 95 | 21.7¢ | $2 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 90 | 9.7¢ | $2 | — |
| overlay690x4e0a…c288 | Yes | 87 | 23.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 85 | 2.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 18,435 bets |
| 0xe8c4…8cf3 | Yes | 66 | 4.0¢ | $1 | — |
| easyautomate0xd069…d078 | No | 1 | 98.6¢ | $1 | — |
| marcopolosrhino0x8d02…2753 | Yes | 63 | 8.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 591 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 1 | 96.1¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 60 | 9.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| Jackson20360x16e4…f27c | Yes | 59 | 1.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0aa0…04a3 | Yes | 58 | 2.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Albert 19530x777f…a1bb | Yes | 55 | 8.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$10.47 per $100 · 4,356 bets |
| trrr120x184b…67b2 | No | 1 | 83.6¢ | $1 | — |
| KalungaHD0x7f5f…5985 | Yes | 53 | 19.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$10.71 per $100 · 456 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 52 | 10.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.67 per $100 · 14,801 bets |
| 0xbafd…4898 | No | 1 | 98.6¢ | $1 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 25 | 9.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
| 50kcasestudy0xeb54…d452 | No | 0 | 83.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 4 | 10.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.01 per $100 · 18,911 bets |
| bigbrainchad0x113f…ae4d | No | 0 | 98.1¢ | $0 | — |
| mildwindow270x9f20…12c3 | No | 0 | 97.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 95.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| deepzz0x2d17…9e0a | No | 0 | 98.9¢ | $0 | — |
| soliton1370x7b18…efae | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| sludgelife0x11b9…d361 | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 287 bets |
| luisotavio03120xcc36…d35d | No | 0 | 96.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
1 account bets both sides equally · 25 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.