Market · 7 of 10 outcomes
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:38 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 862 | 88.4¢ | $838 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 280 | 97.4¢ | $272 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,500 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 7,012 | 3.9¢ | $193 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| Morras0x7ab8…65db | No | 150 | 75.5¢ | $146 | — |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 5,009 | 1.8¢ | $138 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| BP20250x049a…b22a | Yes | 4,249 | 1.3¢ | $117 | Proven+$6.76 per $100 · 257 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 3,333 | 10.0¢ | $92 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 2,615 | 5.9¢ | $72 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 14,399 bets |
| Leshatriceps0x6d99…a1ec | No | 73 | 97.2¢ | $71 | — |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | Yes | 2,210 | 1.8¢ | $61 | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,910 | 3.5¢ | $53 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,980 bets |
| 0x9996…bda1 | Yes | 1,850 | 11.2¢ | $51 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 50 | 97.6¢ | $49 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| 3874110074156118140922178973870xa49b…7054 | Yes | 1,685 | 1.8¢ | $46 | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 43,926 bets |
| Ondra0x849c…4009 | Yes | 1,563 | 3.5¢ | $43 | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 5,303 bets |
| 0x7577…8fb9 | Yes | 1,530 | 2.6¢ | $42 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 210 bets |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | Yes | 1,245 | 2.4¢ | $34 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 1,200 | 3.1¢ | $33 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 1,195 | 6.7¢ | $33 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| forest21230x681e…5394 | Yes | 1,081 | 5.4¢ | $30 | — |
| rabbyhunter0x9cb7…5b8c | Yes | 1,000 | 2.4¢ | $27 | — |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | Yes | 1,000 | 14.0¢ | $27 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | No | 25 | 98.7¢ | $24 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| Ramonstone0x374e…0a84 | Yes | 800 | 2.6¢ | $22 | New32 settled bets |
| tomkat070x5695…002b | No | 22 | 94.6¢ | $22 | — |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | No | 20 | 84.5¢ | $19 | — |
| Nostdam0xe732…898f | Yes | 683 | 2.7¢ | $19 | — |
| bai12810x6883…bd1e | Yes | 682 | 10.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 630 | 8.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 517 | 2.6¢ | $14 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 400 | 8.4¢ | $11 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 10 | 97.4¢ | $10 | — |
| marcopolosrhino0x8d02…2753 | Yes | 362 | 4.3¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 591 bets |
| sd4f5g67h8j90x31a4…dd86 | No | 10 | 85.5¢ | $10 | — |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 93.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 10 | 97.7¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x3764…c5eb | Yes | 346 | 2.4¢ | $10 | Proven+$7.49 per $100 · 1,189 bets |
| cc4160x8242…cb6e | Yes | 300 | 7.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$60.62 per $100 · 199 bets |
| lightshield0xabff…6b73 | Yes | 300 | 14.0¢ | $8 | — |
| rocky420110xe1f1…3a05 | Yes | 300 | 1.8¢ | $8 | — |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 276 | 8.9¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| gldx0xf930…cfbd | Yes | 275 | 1.9¢ | $8 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 254 | 1.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 7 | 87.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | 227 | 1.8¢ | $6 | — |
| sphinx960xe7ae…17be | Yes | 214 | 6.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x1f85…7b02 | Yes | 214 | 10.0¢ | $6 | — |
| zhou6660x9a38…260a | Yes | 208 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| LovelyPanda0x2ccf…5f6a | Yes | 200 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 200 | 6.0¢ | $6 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 193 | 2.3¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x5088…18ae | No | 5 | 98.2¢ | $5 | — |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | Yes | 170 | 1.0¢ | $5 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 169 | 10.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,303 bets |
| 0x74f3…6c38 | No | 4 | 98.2¢ | $4 | — |
| Olka0x5849…a99e | Yes | 130 | 0.6¢ | $4 | Positive+$16.51 per $100 · 3,079 bets |
| balthazar.net0x6007…1788 | Yes | 125 | 20.6¢ | $3 | — |
| dropmeplease0x758b…0a1c | No | 3 | 76.0¢ | $3 | — |
| masnjr0x57d4…ac0d | Yes | 118 | 17.6¢ | $3 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,760 bets |
| 0x3488…4a94 | Yes | 116 | 16.5¢ | $3 | — |
| crypto-futur30x31cc…ea6b | No | 3 | 97.2¢ | $3 | New47 settled bets |
| Romain1410x72cb…5962 | Yes | 114 | 1.5¢ | $3 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 100 | 13.5¢ | $3 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| probablyright20x8483…6d2e | Yes | 100 | 17.6¢ | $3 | — |
| himken0x115a…9d44 | Yes | 99 | 2.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 2,058 bets |
| T-deg0x9163…0cab | Yes | 90 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| trrr120x184b…67b2 | No | 1 | 86.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xbafd…4898 | No | 1 | 97.7¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 2.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 16 | 9.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| 50kcasestudy0xeb54…d452 | No | 0 | 86.5¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 97.4¢ | $0 | — |
| bigbrainchad0x113f…ae4d | No | 0 | 90.4¢ | $0 | — |
| ro-money0x937f…104a | No | 0 | 72.0¢ | $0 | — |
| RazuchiONE0xf33e…0ab8 | No | 0 | 83.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 10.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 11 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.