Market · 8 of 10 outcomes
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:58 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | No | 1,000 | 92.9¢ | $972 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 845 | 97.0¢ | $821 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 395 | 92.0¢ | $384 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 286 | 98.0¢ | $278 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,129 bets |
| anonymousoctopus0x6b32…3535 | Yes | 8,131 | 7.8¢ | $228 | — |
| sety0x0a2a…6eab | No | 200 | 97.6¢ | $194 | — |
| LeopoldAschenbooger0x929a…8cf0 | Yes | 5,522 | 3.6¢ | $155 | — |
| slimecity30x7b04…3a41 | Yes | 5,375 | 4.3¢ | $151 | — |
| UnreasonableAwareness0x9afd…574b | Yes | 4,212 | 7.3¢ | $118 | — |
| Username21330x0947…c1c9 | Yes | 4,000 | 3.5¢ | $112 | — |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 3,333 | 10.0¢ | $93 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| 0x5b91…2709 | Yes | 2,510 | 4.2¢ | $70 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 1,151 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,853 | 4.5¢ | $52 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,877 bets |
| Bursted0x843e…d2f3 | No | 51 | 92.3¢ | $50 | New6 settled bets |
| ClarksonStreet0x02d3…2327 | No | 51 | 98.6¢ | $49 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 50 | 98.4¢ | $49 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| papa66690x6287…e197 | Yes | 1,717 | 2.0¢ | $48 | — |
| Hall-ex0x4a19…c9e3 | Yes | 1,705 | 1.9¢ | $48 | New45 settled bets |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | No | 40 | 95.3¢ | $39 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 755 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 1,199 | 2.9¢ | $34 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 34 | 91.7¢ | $33 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 1,156 | 7.7¢ | $32 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| DREAMBIG.0x9e8e…8db8 | No | 31 | 90.0¢ | $30 | Proven+$18.01 per $100 · 5,706 bets |
| DW10x8041…fc83 | No | 30 | 91.4¢ | $29 | Positive+$1.63 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 1,024 | 7.4¢ | $29 | Losing−$2.58 per $100 · 123,998 bets |
| 0x1f85…7b02 | Yes | 997 | 3.1¢ | $28 | — |
| zhou6660x9a38…260a | Yes | 900 | 1.0¢ | $25 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 23 | 97.9¢ | $22 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| 3874110074156118140922178973870xa49b…7054 | Yes | 729 | 5.0¢ | $20 | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 43,926 bets |
| moonthat0x5fa0…c20f | Yes | 706 | 8.9¢ | $20 | — |
| Eastassignment0xb8b0…1281 | No | 20 | 93.3¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 685 | 2.1¢ | $19 | Positive+$13.28 per $100 · 8,633 bets |
| Olka0x5849…a99e | Yes | 570 | 0.6¢ | $16 | Positive+$16.51 per $100 · 3,079 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 562 | 6.8¢ | $16 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0xpemulis0x9a80…5d5f | Yes | 390 | 6.3¢ | $11 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 381 | 3.4¢ | $11 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 10 | 98.0¢ | $10 | — |
| sd4f5g67h8j90x31a4…dd86 | No | 10 | 96.7¢ | $10 | — |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 10 | 97.0¢ | $10 | — |
| a.weidel0x0213…82f6 | Yes | 338 | 3.7¢ | $9 | Losing−$26.12 per $100 · 119 bets |
| RandomWalker30x9276…37a3 | Yes | 330 | 7.9¢ | $9 | — |
| TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8 | Yes | 310 | 5.4¢ | $9 | Positive+$6.64 per $100 · 1,269 bets |
| GracjanSz0x41b8…aceb | No | 8 | 96.5¢ | $7 | — |
| Amerika0x756d…b4d4 | Yes | 252 | 8.2¢ | $7 | — |
| Cbarbhwux0x030a…acfc | Yes | 208 | 5.1¢ | $6 | Proven+$8.74 per $100 · 518 bets |
| Banditoes0xe7fe…24e5 | Yes | 200 | 5.0¢ | $6 | — |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | No | 6 | 92.1¢ | $5 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 236 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 191 | 10.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 180 | 5.3¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| Conpink0xc8cd…ed53 | No | 5 | 91.2¢ | $5 | — |
| Oklmntrader0x6f67…102c | Yes | 170 | 10.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 160 | 2.5¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 143 | 9.3¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 142 | 2.3¢ | $4 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 122 | 5.4¢ | $3 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| ma990x6c37…d40f | Yes | 100 | 3.6¢ | $3 | Positive+$7.97 per $100 · 7,458 bets |
| hallways0xa989…bb4d | Yes | 71 | 4.4¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe8c4…8cf3 | Yes | 66 | 1.7¢ | $2 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 64 | 9.7¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| asfdt10xcf49…ca1b | No | 2 | 91.2¢ | $2 | — |
| H2g38K120x3bb5…7ad9 | Yes | 56 | 3.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.04 per $100 · 203 bets |
| camkm0xbabd…2b67 | Yes | 56 | 1.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 2 | 92.6¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| OmeadAzadeh0x962e…1d75 | No | 1 | 92.6¢ | $1 | — |
| mauro3210x84e9…36b0 | Yes | 40 | 5.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Saldivva0x9e46…24de | Yes | 38 | 6.6¢ | $1 | — |
| m100xb6cb…21cd | No | 1 | 93.0¢ | $1 | — |
| crypto-futur30x31cc…ea6b | No | 1 | 98.6¢ | $1 | New47 settled bets |
| 0xbafd…4898 | No | 1 | 96.7¢ | $1 | — |
| LeftieFTW0x066a…550d | No | 1 | 97.0¢ | $1 | — |
| rumbam0xf3d3…ad06 | Yes | 36 | 2.9¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 3.7¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| BAO958890x300c…6a92 | Yes | 28 | 50.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.48 per $100 · 1,903 bets |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 25 | 8.9¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| 0x0899…85d4 | Yes | 23 | 4.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe98c…066e | Yes | 21 | 9.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0c3d…cfbf | No | 1 | 99.4¢ | $1 | — |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 5 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.77 per $100 · 77,753+ bets · updating |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 4 | 10.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.03 per $100 · 18,899 bets |
| vvvt0xe8df…faa5 | No | 0 | 92.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 50kcasestudy0xeb54…d452 | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf5f4…f7de | No | 0 | 94.5¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 91.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| smallreceipt0x942e…be27 | No | 0 | 99.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca08…c267 | No | 0 | 92.1¢ | $0 | — |
| soliton1370x7b18…efae | No | 0 | 92.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 0 | 90.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| bigbrainchad0x113f…ae4d | No | 0 | 92.8¢ | $0 | — |
| wfsxfwetrdsf0xc3fc…484a | No | 0 | 93.9¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.07M in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.