Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:48 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Anthropic, 6 on OpenAI. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul9739730xa108…abd3 | Anthropic | 25,603 | 89.8¢ | $24.5K | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| thebetter12340xf501…8852 | Anthropic | 6,728 | 94.3¢ | $6.45K | New98 settled bets |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | Anthropic | 6,192 | 95.9¢ | $5.93K | New56 settled bets |
| woodlawncap0xe005…14fd | Anthropic | 4,300 | 95.7¢ | $4.12K | Proven+$4.14 per $100 · 233 bets |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | Anthropic | 3,060 | 95.4¢ | $2.93K | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,007 bets |
| aviato0x2a01…6397 | Anthropic | 3,000 | 94.3¢ | $2.87K | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,736 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Anthropic | 2,504 | 93.3¢ | $2.4K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| swapbox0x43d5…2e11 | Anthropic | 1,908 | 48.0¢ | $1.83K | — |
| AmandaMoore28900xfa3f…6e13 | Anthropic | 1,396 | 56.2¢ | $1.34K | — |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | Anthropic | 1,374 | 95.2¢ | $1.32K | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| JillWard24860x506a…1b43 | Anthropic | 1,372 | 56.0¢ | $1.31K | — |
| RickyCastillo71270x5243…a73c | Anthropic | 1,271 | 56.0¢ | $1.22K | — |
| turkerburak0x2c9a…f183 | Anthropic | 1,107 | 63.0¢ | $1.06K | — |
| Jjw0xb1a1…d308 | Anthropic | 1,106 | 96.9¢ | $1.06K | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 2,249 bets |
| CryptoLBL0x0670…29bf | Anthropic | 1,044 | 95.9¢ | $1K | — |
| RandallBeasley21870x19cd…f7ff | Anthropic | 1,010 | 65.0¢ | $968 | — |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Anthropic | 1,000 | 89.0¢ | $958 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | OpenAI | 22,032 | 11.4¢ | $925 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| newfinance0x646f…23c3 | Anthropic | 916 | 66.0¢ | $878 | — |
| Cyjohny0x672a…04e8 | Anthropic | 884 | 67.9¢ | $847 | — |
| JosephGould96650x217e…09de | Anthropic | 766 | 60.0¢ | $734 | — |
| dubaidude0xcdb8…f285 | Anthropic | 766 | 67.5¢ | $734 | — |
| andreagaleazzi0x03a3…fdf4 | Anthropic | 753 | 65.0¢ | $721 | — |
| ChristopherGardner45780x0ad5…6f41 | Anthropic | 719 | 65.0¢ | $689 | — |
| CollinRitter27420x2fbf…7328 | Anthropic | 713 | 66.0¢ | $683 | — |
| TimothyKennedy19310x8f3e…f9d4 | Anthropic | 697 | 64.0¢ | $668 | — |
| 1francisco0x6eac…92ca | Anthropic | 693 | 66.0¢ | $664 | — |
| AnnaGallegos28850x533d…e5ec | Anthropic | 680 | 58.0¢ | $651 | — |
| HannahJones65150x8433…6e0f | Anthropic | 655 | 60.0¢ | $627 | — |
| AmberCooper73090x4924…f404 | Anthropic | 633 | 66.0¢ | $606 | — |
| BradMccoy93280xe24a…fc69 | Anthropic | 629 | 61.3¢ | $603 | — |
| JesseHo13320x4a54…db64 | Anthropic | 614 | 66.0¢ | $588 | — |
| 389200x2cb0…0d4c | Anthropic | 602 | 60.0¢ | $577 | — |
| howstheweather0x47f7…0312 | Anthropic | 600 | 78.7¢ | $575 | — |
| KennethWilson81420x0042…e62f | Anthropic | 581 | 66.0¢ | $556 | — |
| quantitativecredit0xa44b…eb27 | Anthropic | 576 | 67.0¢ | $552 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Anthropic | 567 | 94.7¢ | $543 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| PatriciaPaul60620x557a…9f70 | Anthropic | 540 | 67.0¢ | $517 | — |
| rickli0x9f51…c63c | Anthropic | 527 | 61.0¢ | $505 | — |
| fjdklskfd0x9fba…dbbc | Anthropic | 523 | 95.7¢ | $501 | — |
| CynthiaChapman66910xde45…8238 | Anthropic | 504 | 64.0¢ | $483 | — |
| shirleyr0x5aca…cad6 | Anthropic | 500 | 63.0¢ | $479 | — |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | Anthropic | 500 | 78.0¢ | $479 | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| NicoleAndrews46080xf92a…9134 | Anthropic | 497 | 66.0¢ | $476 | — |
| nveritatis0x5374…952a | Anthropic | 491 | 67.0¢ | $470 | — |
| ErikaBlackwell57310xca67…703c | Anthropic | 472 | 66.0¢ | $452 | — |
| payfox0x02ce…2213 | Anthropic | 471 | 66.0¢ | $451 | — |
| TammyReynolds35570x805a…735d | Anthropic | 464 | 60.0¢ | $445 | — |
| JeffreyPrice39110x38c1…2f84 | Anthropic | 460 | 57.0¢ | $441 | — |
| AntonioSoto80530xe17a…c6fb | Anthropic | 449 | 60.0¢ | $430 | — |
| dovetail0x1025…7e11 | OpenAI | 4,212 | 4.4¢ | $177 | — |
| shillingburger0xabeb…7a78 | Anthropic | 169 | 68.0¢ | $162 | — |
| vengo0x6b17…ba2e | OpenAI | 3,155 | 11.5¢ | $133 | — |
| Pheyul0x0554…1880 | OpenAI | 2,917 | 9.4¢ | $122 | — |
| wweat0x270b…e632 | OpenAI | 2,842 | 10.0¢ | $119 | — |
| occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b | OpenAI | 2,628 | 25.6¢ | $110 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 2,447 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | OpenAI | 2,566 | 4.5¢ | $108 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| TRADER4200x80cf…614d | OpenAI | 2,155 | 3.6¢ | $91 | Proven+$8.29 per $100 · 270 bets |
| 0x225b…422a | OpenAI | 1,827 | 4.5¢ | $77 | Proven+$9.78 per $100 · 302 bets |
| hitjnn2140x993f…3ee3 | OpenAI | 1,811 | 21.0¢ | $76 | — |
| metalevels0x43f6…bb1e | OpenAI | 1,612 | 44.0¢ | $68 | — |
| NatashaWalker69460x7cc2…40d7 | OpenAI | 1,341 | 40.0¢ | $56 | — |
| DrVolBird0xa3fa…f035 | OpenAI | 1,274 | 5.3¢ | $54 | — |
| Anononono0x1966…25c0 | OpenAI | 1,246 | 4.7¢ | $52 | — |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | OpenAI | 1,171 | 35.5¢ | $49 | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| TestingMyGangster0x3a51…fd7f | OpenAI | 1,163 | 4.5¢ | $49 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 133 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | OpenAI | 1,154 | 7.1¢ | $48 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| 12367890x01dd…fb46 | OpenAI | 1,151 | 34.0¢ | $48 | — |
| ethosdev0x9f61…c03e | OpenAI | 1,130 | 52.0¢ | $47 | — |
| ohial0x5661…ef17 | OpenAI | 1,126 | 35.0¢ | $47 | — |
| JoseStrickland41510xec92…1214 | OpenAI | 1,121 | 52.0¢ | $47 | — |
| drigues0x82a7…afb5 | OpenAI | 991 | 40.0¢ | $42 | — |
| JessicaCarter54630x5372…5f61 | OpenAI | 960 | 34.0¢ | $40 | — |
| WilliamWright98000x98cb…a127 | OpenAI | 954 | 37.0¢ | $40 | — |
| MeganBrooks30580xac45…1dcf | OpenAI | 940 | 43.0¢ | $39 | — |
| 287630x7270…add3 | OpenAI | 928 | 33.0¢ | $39 | — |
| KelseyOrtiz46340xd161…bcf0 | OpenAI | 862 | 35.0¢ | $36 | — |
| ScottNguyen21590xa9ae…8598 | OpenAI | 855 | 36.0¢ | $36 | — |
| BrandonSmith35560xef29…f7ea | OpenAI | 809 | 33.0¢ | $34 | — |
| fillets0x154e…ed0c | OpenAI | 808 | 33.0¢ | $34 | — |
| BrandonHamilton35270xab21…4b87 | OpenAI | 783 | 40.0¢ | $33 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | OpenAI | 728 | 11.7¢ | $31 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 29,886+ bets · updating |
| bayc47460xde9f…cd36 | OpenAI | 715 | 34.0¢ | $30 | — |
| 0xf22b…7eab | OpenAI | 679 | 5.0¢ | $29 | — |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | OpenAI | 659 | 11.4¢ | $28 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,726 bets |
| NicholasRitter38340xc187…bdf1 | OpenAI | 653 | 37.0¢ | $27 | — |
| sooltanpalace0x3474…be04 | OpenAI | 646 | 34.0¢ | $27 | — |
| vacationidea0xf58d…a617 | OpenAI | 625 | 40.0¢ | $26 | — |
| ChristopherBruce41300x6546…c454 | OpenAI | 616 | 44.0¢ | $26 | — |
| DarylSalazar27580xe2a8…9b29 | OpenAI | 613 | 34.0¢ | $26 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | OpenAI | 600 | 4.5¢ | $25 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| MauriceHoffman70160xcfb8…ec8d | OpenAI | 599 | 36.0¢ | $25 | — |
| GinaMendez85700x4061…f5eb | OpenAI | 598 | 34.0¢ | $25 | — |
| TonyWall21790x43d7…54a7 | OpenAI | 583 | 44.0¢ | $24 | — |
| AnnRodriguez11970x1633…8bf6 | OpenAI | 562 | 44.0¢ | $24 | — |
| FreeCityIndividual0x098e…6fa2 | OpenAI | 532 | 5.6¢ | $22 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 5,147 bets |
| ChristineOlson45480x9279…9ca7 | OpenAI | 527 | 40.6¢ | $22 | — |
| jayhawkjeff0x910a…91a9 | OpenAI | 479 | 40.0¢ | $20 | — |
| MarkMolina54360xfbec…8dcc | OpenAI | 314 | 36.0¢ | $13 | — |
| MarkMartinez58360xe87e…4f70 | OpenAI | 164 | 34.0¢ | $7 | — |
Shares = Anthropic minus OpenAI for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 88 events · $5.92M in play