Market · 2 of 21 outcomes
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:49 UTC. Not financial advice.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.07M in play
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KiruaTrading0xa7d2…f954 | No | 916 | 54.6¢ | $698 | — |
| 0x241F...e15a0x241f…e15a | Yes | 1,800 | 79.1¢ | $429 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Yes |
| 1,700 |
| 78.7¢ |
| $405 |
| Proven+$11.91 per $100 · 142 bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | Yes | 1,336 | 24.3¢ | $319 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| bleed10xa27f…0ce8 | No | 385 | 20.0¢ | $293 | — |
| NoTeacher0xcb48…be6d | No | 300 | 76.6¢ | $229 | — |
| thekleenex0x818c…a500 | No | 147 | 68.6¢ | $112 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 410 | 3.1¢ | $98 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,731 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | No | 75 | 8.0¢ | $57 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| ksass0x740d…f262 | No | 60 | 23.2¢ | $46 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 40 | 75.2¢ | $30 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 33 | 75.0¢ | $25 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| X-Rabbit.Sezu0xc326…1db1 | Yes | 100 | 28.8¢ | $24 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 76 | 46.9¢ | $18 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| timothymontoya0x3c7f…a196 | No | 20 | 65.8¢ | $15 | — |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | No | 20 | 37.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 487 bets |
| 11B7c7e5D9610xaee8…1154 | Yes | 60 | 23.7¢ | $14 | — |
| Blurry-Ball0x4734…60b1 | Yes | 60 | 34.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x04b3…1b7e | Yes | 51 | 13.7¢ | $12 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 45 | 34.2¢ | $11 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xa06e…d147 | No | 14 | 73.8¢ | $10 | — |
| mcculloughnicolas0xb4e6…9eaa | No | 11 | 73.3¢ | $9 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 76.5¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 77.1¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 90.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 10 | 54.6¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,988 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 30 | 26.6¢ | $7 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 26.7¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| circa70x682a…5d02 | No | 9 | 23.0¢ | $7 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | No | 9 | 48.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
| djsn0x9313…59e9 | Yes | 23 | 22.7¢ | $5 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 20 | 31.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x7c27…6e68 | Yes | 18 | 13.2¢ | $4 | — |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 4 | 58.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 4,881 bets |
| pily0x399f…0e2f | No | 4 | 28.8¢ | $3 | New31 settled bets |
| 0xwordjnn0x0bef…3b06 | Yes | 10 | 84.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$4.39 per $100 · 685 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 39.8¢ | $2 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | Yes | 10 | 39.5¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | Yes | 10 | 39.6¢ | $2 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | Yes | 10 | 39.5¢ | $2 | — |
| hryh0xf91f…a82b | Yes | 10 | 22.0¢ | $2 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 8 | 41.5¢ | $2 | — |
| aviax0x939a…824c | Yes | 7 | 83.6¢ | $2 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 5 | 26.6¢ | $1 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Yes | 5 | 9.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 80sdfs0xfaa2…36bb | No | 1 | 26.9¢ | $1 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 3 | 28.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | No | 1 | 86.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb46f…6b70 | Yes | 2 | 41.1¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 2 | 19.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,693+ bets · updating |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | No | 1 | 32.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 2 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 57,061 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 0 | 72.0¢ | $0 | — |
| coffebely0x1f90…de11 | No | 0 | 16.5¢ | $0 | — |
| z11henxin7240x888c…6a43 | Yes | 1 | 82.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3653…ef74 | No | 0 | 60.7¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| T222222222220xea7f…b855 | No | 0 | 69.9¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420100x84d7…298f | Yes | 0 | 30.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.82 per $100 · 9,913 bets |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | Yes | 0 | 74.0¢ | $0 | — |
| prjjfb340xfd99…b908 | No | 0 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 0 | 68.8¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 70.6¢ | $0 | — |
| korda770xa328…4977 | No | 0 | 68.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.73 per $100 · 43,120 bets |
| IP13800x96e8…d240 | Yes | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| yes-yes-no0xea91…bea2 | Yes | 0 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 0 | 75.0¢ | $0 | — |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | Yes | 0 | 80.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 81.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 5 shares each side · Show
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