Market · 1 of 21 outcomes
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bleed10xa27f…0ce8 | Yes | 1,088 | 24.6¢ | $713 | — |
| 0xa277…1182 | Yes | 961 | 58.6¢ | $630 | — |
| 11B7c7e5D9610xaee8…1154 | Yes | 949 | 48.0¢ | $622 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,323 | 70.1¢ | $456 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,694 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 452 | 55.0¢ | $296 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 764 | 35.8¢ | $264 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| Annihilation0xd416…d9e2 | Yes | 367 | 61.0¢ | $241 | — |
| cym19690x68a7…f49a | Yes | 357 | 59.6¢ | $234 | — |
| sunnynotbunny0x4d02…2ad3 | Yes | 122 | 61.0¢ | $80 | — |
| NoTeacher0xcb48…be6d | Yes | 108 | 63.0¢ | $70 | — |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | Yes | 87 | 13.5¢ | $57 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 157 | 43.9¢ | $54 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | Yes | 40 | 64.9¢ | $26 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| hollykent0x0408…12cc | Yes | 35 | 62.0¢ | $23 | — |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | Yes | 35 | 7.3¢ | $23 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 60 | 40.0¢ | $21 | — |
| 0x11b7…4b0f | Yes | 26 | 6.5¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,344 bets |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | No | 41 | 39.9¢ | $14 | — |
| Hannah-Montana0x521b…db60 | Yes | 20 | 54.0¢ | $13 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 36 | 37.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xe118…c5a4 | Yes | 17 | 59.6¢ | $11 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 16 | 53.0¢ | $10 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 15 | 9.6¢ | $10 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 24 | 27.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Elton1230x8673…4025 | Yes | 11 | 9.3¢ | $7 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 89.4¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,477 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 10 | 69.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 18 | 32.8¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 17 | 32.1¢ | $6 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Norso210x17fc…caf4 | Yes | 8 | 62.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.73 per $100 · 530 bets |
| agentcal0x42b7…abff | Yes | 7 | 63.9¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.60 per $100 · 4,595 bets |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 10 | 72.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 10 | 36.0¢ | $3 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 50.0¢ | $3 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 50.0¢ | $3 | — |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 5 | 38.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 2 | 43.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | No | 2 | 97.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 1 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5f3e…5337 | No | 1 | 45.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hokinado0xffee…ea6b | No | 0 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 0 | 36.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 37.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x3653…ef74 | No | 0 | 29.6¢ | $0 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 0 | 62.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| luciebot0x17dd…944c | Yes | 0 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.