October 12

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
4. §4For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
5. §5A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
6. §6A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
7. §7The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website.