Market · 11 of 13 outcomes
Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 810 | 92.2¢ | $796 | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 280 | 87.6¢ | $275 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 249 | 90.5¢ | $245 | — |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 207 | 96.7¢ | $204 | — |
| Dr.mett0xe0dc…3944 | No | 50 | 75.5¢ | $49 | — |
| 0x8b54…167f | No | 48 | 92.2¢ | $47 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | No | 20 | 77.7¢ | $20 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,743 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 315 | 10.2¢ | $5 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 170 | 20.6¢ | $3 | — |
| Ardtysrt010x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | 167 | 1.7¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.50 per $100 · 6,078 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 164 | 14.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 125 | 2.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 111 | 9.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,038 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 104 | 8.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 84 | 7.1¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,293 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 75 | 9.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| misha-d10x040a…118d | Yes | 50 | 15.2¢ | $1 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 48 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 45 | 8.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 33 | 9.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 9.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 0 | 97.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 9.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | Yes | 20 | 11.3¢ | $0 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 20 | 10.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 15.1¢ | $0 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | Yes | 10 | 10.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| 67xxabcsdafasdf0x779d…267c | Yes | 10 | 10.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 11,002 bets |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | Yes | 10 | 10.2¢ | $0 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | Yes | 10 | 10.7¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | Yes | 10 | 10.9¢ | $0 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 10 | 20.7¢ | $0 | — |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | Yes | 8 | 13.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe72b…3c9c | No | 0 | 92.2¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 91.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| sdafsafd0x8513…6a53 | Yes | 2 | 10.2¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | Yes | 2 | 10.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 11,893 bets |
| bobrenokli0x8a08…0eec | Yes | 0 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 0 | 9.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | Yes | 0 | 22.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play