Market · 12 of 13 outcomes
Mistral matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 1,881 | 86.8¢ | $1.86K | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 422 | 87.2¢ | $417 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | No | 401 | 84.5¢ | $396 | Positive+$2.44 per $100 · 5,624 bets |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | No | 28 | 90.0¢ | $28 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,743 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 20 | 92.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 537 | 14.5¢ | $7 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 509 | 1.3¢ | $7 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 6 | 95.2¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 453 | 14.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.58 per $100 · 123,998 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 318 | 14.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 160 | 6.1¢ | $2 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 145 | 1.5¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 6.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| bobrenokli0x8a08…0eec | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | Yes | 97 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| qbug0xf939…aded | Yes | 70 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Johnny-Worker0x7ee6…6eb1 | Yes | 50 | 14.0¢ | $1 | — |
| napamen0x8494…814a | Yes | 50 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | Yes | 40 | 14.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 35 | 3.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 29 | 4.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7.0x7474…cef7 | Yes | 20 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 20 | 13.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 15 | 17.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,285 bets |
| .Menthe0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | 7 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| blessedshirt0xb8eb…cfcc | Yes | 1 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.06M in play